***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 21.7 22.6 21.5 -0.5 41.7 42.4 21.2 22.9 23.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 21.3 22.4 21.5 -0.5 41.6 43.8 21.6 22.9 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 21.8 22.2 21.5 -0.6 38.1 41.5 21.7 23.3 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 14.4 14.5 19.3 -0.7 32.9 37.9 14.5 15.5 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 21.9 22.0 19.7 -0.7 34.5 38.4 21.9 23.2 24.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 20.4 20.9 17.7 -0.6 35.8 38.5 20.7 21.3 21.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 21.3 22.0 21.5 -0.4 43.5 44.6 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.2 18.0 -0.7 34.6 39.1 10.2 10.7 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 21.3 21.3 20.2 -0.7 34.6 39.5 21.2 22.4 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 21.3 21.6 18.9 -0.7 34.0 39.2 21.5 22.2 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 22.7 22.0 19.2 -0.7 34.9 38.7 21.7 22.3 23.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 20.5 21.1 18.8 -0.7 35.1 38.6 21.0 21.5 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 21.5 21.8 18.4 -0.7 33.5 37.8 21.8 22.8 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 21.7 21.6 19.9 -0.9 32.2 38.0 21.7 23.2 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 21.8 21.7 19.9 -0.7 31.9 36.7 21.8 22.8 23.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 21.9 22.1 18.9 -0.7 34.7 37.8 22.1 23.1 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 20.7 21.2 21.2 -0.6 38.6 43.0 20.7 22.2 23.7 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 20.7 21.1 18.2 -0.8 33.2 39.2 21.0 21.8 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 21.0 21.7 21.4 -0.6 39.3 42.7 21.2 22.4 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 15.6 16.3 16.0 -0.8 33.7 38.6 16.3 17.0 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 21.6 21.8 20.9 -0.7 35.2 39.3 21.5 23.0 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 21.3 21.3 21.1 -0.7 35.3 40.7 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 21.7 22.0 21.2 -0.7 36.4 40.8 21.9 23.2 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 21.3 21.3 19.8 -0.8 32.8 39.4 21.3 22.7 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 21.5 21.4 19.9 -0.7 35.3 39.3 21.4 23.1 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 20.6 21.2 18.1 -0.7 34.2 38.9 21.2 21.8 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 21.4 22.2 20.7 -0.6 38.9 41.2 21.3 23.0 23.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 21.7 21.8 19.6 -0.7 32.2 37.0 21.8 22.8 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 15.6 16.3 17.3 -0.8 33.6 39.2 16.3 16.9 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 21.3 22.3 21.6 -0.5 42.1 43.9 21.1 22.9 24.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------