***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 21.9 24.4 23.8 0.1 52.8 51.1 21.9 24.0 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 22.3 25.2 23.9 0.2 58.2 52.4 22.2 24.6 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 22.2 24.8 23.9 0.1 52.3 51.6 22.0 24.6 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 14.8 16.1 21.8 -0.2 46.2 47.8 14.5 17.1 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 21.9 23.3 22.0 -0.1 47.6 49.8 22.1 23.6 26.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 20.2 23.5 20.2 0.2 54.2 51.4 20.6 22.3 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 22.0 24.7 23.8 0.2 58.1 52.1 22.3 24.0 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 10.4 13.0 20.7 0.1 53.3 51.6 10.7 12.8 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 21.5 23.0 22.5 0.0 48.4 50.6 21.5 23.7 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 21.2 23.6 21.3 0.1 51.1 51.3 21.6 23.2 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 21.3 22.8 21.7 0.1 49.4 51.0 21.9 23.0 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 20.5 22.7 21.4 0.1 53.3 51.2 21.0 21.9 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 21.6 23.8 20.9 0.0 51.9 50.6 22.0 23.5 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 21.7 24.6 22.3 0.1 52.3 51.4 21.9 24.3 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 22.9 23.5 21.9 -0.4 45.0 46.1 22.5 24.6 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 22.0 23.9 21.4 0.0 51.4 50.5 22.7 23.8 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 21.4 24.2 23.6 0.1 56.1 51.7 22.6 23.3 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 20.9 23.7 20.8 0.1 54.1 52.0 21.3 22.7 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 22.0 24.9 23.9 0.2 56.3 52.2 21.6 24.3 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 16.1 18.6 18.6 0.1 55.3 51.9 16.6 18.3 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 21.8 23.7 23.2 0.0 47.5 50.3 21.5 24.0 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 22.0 24.5 23.5 0.0 53.6 50.9 22.4 24.3 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 21.8 24.6 23.7 0.1 53.4 51.9 22.1 24.4 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 21.3 24.3 22.3 0.1 53.7 51.9 21.1 23.7 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 22.2 23.8 22.1 -0.1 47.1 48.8 22.1 24.3 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 21.2 23.9 20.7 0.1 54.4 51.1 21.4 23.3 24.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 21.9 24.1 22.9 0.0 50.2 50.2 22.0 24.1 25.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 22.1 23.6 21.9 -0.2 47.0 47.7 21.8 23.7 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 15.9 18.8 19.8 0.1 54.2 52.2 16.6 18.3 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 22.3 25.0 24.0 0.2 56.8 52.2 21.6 24.7 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------