***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.6 22.1 -0.4 47.7 45.2 23.0 23.6 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.1 22.0 -0.4 46.8 44.6 23.1 24.2 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 24.5 23.8 22.0 -0.5 46.8 45.1 23.1 24.0 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.4 20.1 -0.4 43.7 45.1 15.4 16.7 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 24.7 23.8 20.3 -0.4 45.6 46.4 22.7 24.0 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.1 22.2 18.4 -0.2 48.3 48.2 21.3 22.5 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 22.1 23.8 22.1 -0.4 46.4 44.6 22.4 24.1 25.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.0 18.9 -0.2 47.6 48.8 10.5 12.1 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.3 20.7 -0.4 46.2 46.3 21.9 23.7 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 23.7 22.8 19.5 -0.3 46.7 47.4 22.1 23.1 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.4 19.9 -0.3 46.7 47.6 22.3 23.5 24.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 23.3 22.7 19.6 -0.2 46.9 48.7 21.6 23.0 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.4 19.1 -0.2 47.7 48.4 22.6 23.6 24.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.9 20.4 -0.7 42.9 44.4 21.8 24.1 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 25.0 23.4 20.4 -0.5 41.7 43.7 21.8 24.5 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 24.8 24.1 19.6 -0.3 46.8 47.5 22.9 24.2 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 21.3 22.5 21.7 -0.6 43.3 43.3 21.8 23.3 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.5 23.0 18.9 -0.4 46.4 47.2 21.6 23.2 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.3 23.6 22.0 -0.5 46.1 44.5 22.7 23.7 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.7 18.2 16.9 -0.2 48.7 49.5 16.5 18.3 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.4 21.5 -0.4 45.4 45.3 22.3 23.7 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 22.0 23.7 21.6 -0.7 42.4 42.5 22.4 24.2 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 24.9 23.8 21.7 -0.6 44.4 44.3 22.6 24.4 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 24.0 23.1 20.4 -0.5 44.6 45.6 21.9 23.6 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 24.3 23.3 20.5 -0.4 45.4 44.6 22.4 23.6 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 23.4 22.6 18.9 -0.1 49.8 50.0 21.5 22.6 23.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.3 21.3 -0.4 46.2 44.7 22.5 23.6 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 25.0 23.7 20.3 -0.5 43.3 44.8 22.5 24.5 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.1 18.2 18.0 -0.3 47.0 48.0 16.4 18.7 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.8 22.2 -0.4 47.8 45.1 22.9 23.9 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------