***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 20.1 22.7 20.9 0.3 56.1 53.9 19.8 21.9 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 20.3 23.1 21.0 0.4 59.7 54.4 20.1 22.2 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 20.4 22.4 21.0 0.3 55.7 53.2 20.2 22.1 23.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 13.2 14.8 19.0 0.0 49.1 49.9 13.0 14.8 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 20.4 22.0 19.2 0.1 50.6 50.8 20.6 21.9 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 18.7 20.5 17.3 0.1 51.1 51.3 18.6 20.1 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 20.3 22.7 21.0 0.4 61.1 54.7 19.5 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.9 10.4 17.7 0.1 52.9 51.8 8.1 10.3 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 19.8 21.4 19.6 0.1 54.7 51.7 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 19.9 21.5 18.4 0.2 54.8 52.2 20.1 21.3 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 19.8 21.6 18.7 0.1 51.1 50.9 20.4 21.6 23.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 19.2 20.6 18.4 0.0 50.1 50.5 18.9 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 19.8 21.5 17.9 0.0 50.3 50.2 20.2 21.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 20.4 22.1 19.4 0.2 54.5 52.7 20.2 21.8 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 20.7 21.5 19.2 -0.1 46.3 49.0 20.4 22.1 23.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 20.4 21.9 18.4 0.0 49.1 50.2 20.8 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 19.7 22.1 20.8 0.3 58.7 54.1 19.6 21.6 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 19.3 20.9 17.9 0.3 54.8 53.0 19.4 20.4 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 20.0 22.3 21.0 0.3 57.9 53.8 19.4 21.7 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 14.5 16.5 15.8 0.3 56.0 53.5 14.2 15.7 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 20.1 21.9 20.3 0.1 54.1 51.9 20.2 21.7 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 20.5 22.7 20.7 0.2 57.0 53.1 20.1 22.3 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 20.4 22.8 20.7 0.2 56.2 53.0 20.2 22.2 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 19.8 21.5 19.4 0.2 54.5 53.0 19.7 21.4 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 20.4 22.3 19.3 0.1 54.3 51.6 20.1 22.2 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 19.2 20.8 17.7 0.1 49.5 50.8 19.4 21.0 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 20.2 22.3 20.2 0.2 56.2 53.1 20.4 21.7 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 20.4 21.6 19.1 -0.1 46.5 49.2 20.4 21.9 23.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 14.0 16.5 17.0 0.3 54.8 53.4 14.1 15.1 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 20.2 22.6 21.1 0.4 60.1 54.4 19.6 21.7 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------