***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 20.5 20.4 19.1 -2.0 25.9 26.8 20.6 22.3 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 19.3 19.5 19.0 -2.1 26.2 26.8 20.7 22.2 24.0 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 19.2 20.0 18.9 -2.4 24.4 24.1 20.7 21.6 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 12.1 11.6 16.5 -2.1 19.3 24.7 12.8 14.5 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 19.1 19.2 17.2 -2.5 20.6 22.7 20.8 21.4 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 17.5 17.2 14.7 -2.7 21.1 22.1 18.0 19.9 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 19.4 19.5 19.1 -1.9 28.4 28.6 20.2 21.4 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 86 14 0 100 6.5 6.3 15.0 -2.8 21.4 21.5 6.8 9.0 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 18.8 18.7 18.1 -2.5 21.6 22.8 19.9 21.0 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 18.9 19.0 16.2 -2.8 20.2 21.6 19.8 21.3 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 19.2 19.1 16.8 -2.6 21.7 22.5 20.0 21.4 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 18.1 17.9 15.8 -2.7 22.2 22.1 18.4 20.3 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 18.8 18.5 15.9 -2.8 19.0 20.9 19.1 21.0 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 18.8 18.5 17.3 -3.1 19.0 18.7 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 19.7 19.2 18.1 -1.9 23.7 26.7 20.2 22.1 22.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 19.4 19.2 16.4 -2.6 20.4 21.8 19.8 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 18.7 19.1 18.7 -2.1 26.0 26.9 19.9 21.2 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 18.5 18.3 15.2 -3.1 17.3 19.9 18.8 20.4 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 18.8 19.2 18.9 -2.3 25.3 25.1 20.1 21.4 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 12.8 12.5 12.8 -3.3 16.4 18.5 13.4 15.3 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 19.0 19.3 18.7 -2.5 22.2 23.3 20.4 21.4 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 19.0 19.2 18.5 -2.4 23.6 24.3 20.7 21.4 23.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 19.0 19.4 18.6 -2.6 24.5 22.4 20.6 21.8 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 18.9 18.7 17.2 -3.0 19.0 20.3 19.8 21.1 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 19.1 19.5 17.7 -2.2 23.3 24.9 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 18.0 17.9 15.0 -2.7 19.5 21.2 18.5 19.8 21.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 19.3 19.2 18.5 -2.0 25.0 26.4 20.5 21.4 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 19.7 18.7 17.1 -2.2 20.8 24.7 20.3 22.2 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 12.7 12.4 14.3 -3.2 15.5 19.0 13.7 14.9 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 19.0 19.9 19.1 -2.0 27.2 27.0 20.2 21.8 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------