***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.1 11.7 -0.1 53.6 49.4 10.4 10.8 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 9.9 11.1 11.6 0.0 57.6 51.8 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 11.6 12.5 11.4 -0.1 52.7 48.1 12.0 12.3 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.0 9.2 -0.1 44.7 46.0 6.5 7.3 7.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.0 9.2 -0.1 47.0 47.7 8.5 9.2 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.2 8.0 7.4 0.0 48.2 51.1 7.6 8.0 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.1 10.8 11.7 0.0 58.4 52.1 10.0 10.5 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.0 7.3 -0.1 45.8 47.1 2.3 3.2 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 9.4 9.9 9.6 -0.1 49.2 48.0 9.3 9.9 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.4 9.9 8.0 -0.1 48.1 47.9 9.2 10.0 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.4 8.7 -0.1 45.2 47.1 9.0 9.6 10.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.1 8.1 -0.1 44.3 46.8 7.3 8.1 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.1 7.8 0.0 48.8 50.9 8.8 9.1 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 9.9 10.6 9.5 -0.2 45.3 44.0 10.1 10.7 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.8 9.9 -0.1 43.0 45.6 10.3 10.8 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.2 8.5 0.0 46.2 48.7 9.6 10.5 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.1 11.4 0.0 55.6 51.4 10.3 11.1 11.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.3 8.0 7.3 -0.1 47.5 47.6 7.6 8.1 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 10.1 10.9 11.5 0.0 57.5 50.6 10.3 10.6 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.6 5.6 0.0 48.0 49.6 3.9 4.7 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 9.3 9.7 10.7 -0.1 49.3 47.1 9.4 9.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 9.4 10.2 11.2 -0.1 54.5 49.8 9.6 10.0 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 9.6 10.6 11.1 -0.1 55.2 48.1 9.9 10.2 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 9.4 9.9 9.3 -0.2 47.0 45.4 9.7 10.0 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.5 10.1 -0.1 47.2 47.3 10.0 10.5 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.0 7.8 0.0 46.7 49.8 8.2 9.1 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.9 10.9 0.0 51.6 49.3 9.9 10.8 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.5 9.5 -0.1 43.7 45.8 8.3 8.9 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.2 6.7 -0.1 46.6 48.0 7.0 7.3 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 10.1 10.8 11.7 0.0 58.2 51.1 10.3 10.6 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------