***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 10.8 12.1 13.5 0.0 51.9 49.6 11.2 11.6 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 11.0 12.2 13.5 0.0 55.7 51.1 10.7 12.0 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 12.4 13.8 13.1 -0.1 50.3 48.8 12.4 13.8 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.2 7.5 10.8 -0.4 42.8 44.7 7.3 8.9 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.5 10.9 -0.2 46.7 47.8 10.1 10.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.5 9.3 0.1 51.4 51.7 8.8 9.5 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.4 13.6 0.1 56.1 51.3 10.8 12.0 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.5 9.1 -0.1 53.3 50.7 3.5 4.1 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.7 11.9 11.3 -0.1 50.0 49.1 10.8 11.9 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.9 9.7 -0.1 51.8 49.9 10.8 11.8 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.6 10.4 -0.2 48.2 49.0 10.9 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.5 10.0 -0.1 51.7 50.1 8.6 9.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 10.1 11.2 9.5 0.0 52.1 50.7 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 10.9 11.8 11.1 -0.3 48.8 47.6 11.4 11.8 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 11.4 12.2 11.2 -0.5 42.8 42.3 11.9 12.3 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.8 10.1 -0.1 48.4 49.1 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 11.3 12.8 13.3 0.1 57.0 51.3 11.2 12.7 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.1 9.0 -0.1 49.4 50.3 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 11.0 12.3 13.3 0.0 53.0 50.3 11.2 12.0 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.2 7.4 0.0 54.0 52.2 5.5 6.0 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 10.5 11.5 12.4 -0.2 47.2 48.0 10.8 11.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 10.3 11.5 13.1 0.0 54.9 50.7 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 10.4 11.6 12.8 -0.2 49.4 48.8 11.0 11.6 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.4 11.0 -0.2 48.1 48.5 11.1 11.4 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 10.8 11.6 11.7 -0.2 46.0 46.7 11.0 11.8 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.6 10.5 9.8 0.0 49.5 51.2 9.7 10.5 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 11.0 12.2 12.6 -0.1 51.0 48.7 11.0 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 9.7 10.2 11.0 -0.4 45.2 44.2 9.6 10.3 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.2 8.3 -0.1 49.4 50.8 7.4 8.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 11.1 12.4 13.6 0.0 53.9 50.7 11.1 12.2 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------