***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.3 10.8 12.1 0.0 49.2 50.1 10.5 10.9 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.3 12.0 0.0 50.9 50.1 10.7 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.3 11.8 0.0 52.6 50.2 12.0 12.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.3 9.8 0.1 51.1 51.1 6.6 8.3 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.1 9.8 9.7 0.2 51.2 51.8 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.3 8.2 0.4 60.0 56.2 7.9 9.0 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.2 12.1 0.1 50.5 49.9 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.9 8.0 0.3 52.7 53.9 2.6 3.7 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.0 10.0 0.2 51.5 51.2 9.9 10.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.1 8.5 0.3 52.8 52.9 9.6 11.0 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.3 9.3 0.3 53.0 52.9 9.7 10.3 10.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.5 8.8 0.3 53.1 53.6 7.9 8.4 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.1 8.3 0.3 55.2 54.7 9.1 9.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.7 9.9 0.0 51.1 50.2 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.0 10.3 0.1 52.6 50.9 10.5 10.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.3 9.0 0.3 55.0 53.6 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.5 11.8 0.0 51.0 49.0 10.7 11.5 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 9.2 9.0 7.9 0.3 52.5 53.4 8.1 9.0 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.3 11.9 0.0 50.9 50.0 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 5.2 5.1 6.3 0.3 53.0 54.7 4.3 5.0 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.7 11.1 0.0 51.4 49.7 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.5 11.6 -0.1 48.9 47.9 10.0 10.5 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.0 11.5 0.0 50.1 49.7 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.6 9.8 0.1 51.6 51.5 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.8 10.4 0.0 49.9 50.1 10.2 10.8 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.1 8.5 0.4 56.5 55.3 9.1 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.5 11.3 0.0 48.4 50.1 11.1 11.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 9.4 9.4 10.0 0.1 53.1 51.4 8.7 9.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.1 7.3 0.3 53.0 54.0 7.0 8.1 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.4 12.1 0.1 50.6 50.4 10.5 11.4 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------