***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 10.4 10.2 10.4 -0.4 50.6 48.4 8.2 10.2 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 10.0 9.3 10.2 -0.3 47.2 48.2 7.6 9.8 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 11.5 11.0 10.1 -0.4 47.4 47.9 9.8 11.4 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 6.3 5.8 7.8 -0.2 48.4 49.4 4.4 6.1 6.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 8.2 7.2 8.0 -0.3 46.4 46.1 6.3 7.9 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.6 5.4 -0.7 36.3 38.1 5.4 6.4 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 9.7 9.1 10.2 -0.3 47.9 48.7 7.7 9.5 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 0.2 0.1 5.3 -0.9 32.4 34.0 0.2 1.5 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 8.6 8.2 8.3 -0.4 45.0 44.0 7.2 8.5 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 8.8 7.8 6.4 -0.6 40.2 40.6 7.3 8.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.3 7.1 -0.6 36.9 39.3 7.2 7.6 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.1 5.3 6.0 -0.9 32.2 34.4 5.4 6.2 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 7.6 7.3 6.1 -0.4 45.9 44.2 6.7 7.4 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 8.9 8.5 8.3 -0.5 44.0 42.8 8.0 8.7 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 9.1 9.0 9.1 -0.1 52.1 52.5 8.4 9.0 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 9.3 8.5 6.9 -0.4 44.2 43.7 8.1 9.1 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 10.3 9.7 9.9 -0.3 44.5 46.4 8.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 6.3 5.6 5.6 -0.5 40.4 40.9 5.3 5.9 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 9.5 9.2 10.1 -0.3 48.2 48.1 8.0 9.4 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.3 2.2 3.4 -0.7 36.8 37.1 1.9 2.8 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 8.2 7.6 9.6 -0.4 45.8 46.0 7.0 8.0 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 9.1 8.5 9.9 -0.3 43.7 44.9 7.6 8.9 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 9.0 8.7 9.9 -0.3 49.1 47.9 7.4 8.9 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 8.7 8.3 7.9 -0.5 43.7 43.2 7.9 8.5 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 9.7 9.1 9.2 -0.3 47.8 48.4 6.9 9.5 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 7.7 7.0 5.8 -0.5 42.4 42.7 6.5 7.5 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 10.3 10.1 9.8 -0.2 50.9 49.9 6.8 10.0 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 7.2 6.8 8.2 -0.2 48.6 49.1 6.2 7.0 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.4 5.4 4.9 -0.6 37.5 38.1 4.8 6.0 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 10.2 9.8 10.4 -0.3 48.6 48.5 7.8 10.0 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------