***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 53.7 52.3 69.4 111.0 61.3 55.8 36.5 48.3 54.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 45.0 48.4 59.7 104.3 59.4 53.8 29.1 39.4 51.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 53.0 60.9 69.3 111.9 63.0 56.8 36.2 47.1 62.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 48.2 64.4 81.1 111.9 61.2 57.5 51.3 58.8 67.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 34.8 69.5 78.1 116.5 66.3 59.0 35.0 44.8 69.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 41.8 67.4 89.3 114.6 67.2 56.8 40.7 55.7 65.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 26.3 46.3 59.0 101.2 56.9 51.7 22.7 36.0 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 73.7 99.7 87.0 114.9 65.4 58.0 75.6 85.5 100.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 35.9 55.2 78.9 114.7 66.0 58.1 38.9 46.3 55.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 43.4 63.1 90.7 115.1 66.0 58.4 44.3 51.9 63.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 55.5 58.6 76.6 117.4 68.4 59.1 35.2 41.7 56.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 58.1 57.4 73.8 114.1 65.7 57.3 42.2 55.5 57.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 31.1 52.6 80.4 111.8 64.3 55.0 35.4 42.8 54.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 65.7 67.2 90.5 108.7 59.5 55.9 48.0 57.5 73.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 48.5 51.5 71.9 106.1 59.1 54.1 34.1 45.6 54.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 34.2 59.9 76.1 111.6 63.8 56.1 33.7 43.9 62.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 44.9 48.9 55.7 96.0 55.2 50.2 24.8 36.6 58.6 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 44.6 71.7 94.1 110.8 60.3 56.8 44.9 53.9 81.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 58.6 66.4 62.1 105.7 59.9 54.7 38.8 51.0 68.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 43.9 65.8 93.8 111.1 61.9 57.2 45.8 62.4 67.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 35.8 55.4 74.8 114.4 64.2 57.7 38.4 49.9 55.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 48.7 44.7 59.0 96.3 53.7 51.1 24.4 43.9 49.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 49.3 50.5 67.0 107.2 58.7 55.1 35.8 42.9 65.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 43.9 69.5 85.1 112.1 61.1 57.1 47.0 54.5 73.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 57.0 55.1 78.4 109.9 59.2 55.1 33.5 51.6 65.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 49.1 55.7 79.4 117.9 68.2 58.7 39.9 46.7 55.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 56.9 54.9 73.5 108.6 59.3 54.7 36.7 50.9 61.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 36.9 53.5 79.2 111.7 62.0 57.4 34.6 47.6 53.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 65.4 87.0 94.0 109.3 59.8 56.4 69.0 83.1 92.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 44.7 43.5 62.4 106.4 59.6 54.5 28.0 37.3 52.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------