***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 10.6 16.2 14.4 85.8 49.8 46.8 12.3 16.2 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.4 12.8 12.6 81.2 52.2 44.9 9.0 12.0 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.7 13.2 14.8 92.7 56.2 49.1 10.3 12.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 8.6 17.4 16.8 93.0 58.5 48.1 8.8 13.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.8 20.6 17.2 100.0 59.2 50.3 11.0 15.3 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 7.1 14.6 21.7 102.1 58.4 47.7 5.7 12.9 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 6.3 12.2 12.5 76.8 52.1 42.6 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 12.6 27.6 19.2 100.7 57.1 49.6 15.5 21.5 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.8 13.0 18.0 102.2 59.9 51.1 7.1 11.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 8.0 20.2 20.3 101.2 58.1 50.1 10.6 14.6 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.7 15.6 16.3 101.0 59.3 50.0 5.2 9.1 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.8 15.7 16.3 99.7 57.9 48.5 7.6 10.7 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.7 11.3 18.0 93.7 54.7 45.9 4.9 10.4 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 21.1 21.3 21.0 97.8 57.6 49.1 14.9 18.5 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.0 13.7 14.8 85.9 58.7 45.2 4.5 7.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.9 13.0 16.9 95.9 57.2 47.5 5.6 8.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.7 9.0 11.7 72.3 50.9 42.9 6.3 8.9 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.4 19.6 22.5 102.2 59.2 49.9 8.2 14.2 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.7 13.3 86.2 54.3 46.5 8.8 10.6 20.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 9.7 18.9 22.0 101.5 57.8 49.1 10.4 17.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.9 17.1 16.4 97.4 57.0 50.4 9.3 12.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.2 11.1 12.7 78.1 50.7 44.2 7.3 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.8 14.8 93.1 57.5 48.1 8.3 13.1 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 19.1 22.7 20.1 104.0 61.0 51.3 10.7 17.0 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.6 13.1 16.3 87.0 51.0 46.8 8.0 12.6 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 5.7 13.0 16.5 94.8 55.0 45.9 6.2 10.5 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 9.1 15.1 15.5 84.9 50.9 45.7 9.2 15.0 19.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 7.8 14.7 16.8 94.1 59.6 47.7 8.6 13.7 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.5 27.2 22.4 101.0 57.2 49.2 16.2 22.3 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 9.5 14.1 13.3 84.6 53.6 45.5 9.6 12.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------