***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.6 11.9 17.0 102.6 60.9 49.4 2.9 4.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.4 9.9 15.2 101.4 60.9 50.7 2.5 5.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.2 16.6 100.6 60.5 48.8 2.7 6.3 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.9 15.8 17.3 89.3 56.3 43.0 4.0 10.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.4 9.5 17.2 92.8 59.2 44.5 3.7 7.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.8 9.6 17.4 85.6 52.4 41.5 6.0 9.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.1 15.2 102.6 59.1 50.9 2.3 4.1 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.2 18.8 17.0 84.1 52.9 43.5 10.1 18.8 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.7 11.6 18.0 94.0 60.1 45.3 2.9 8.6 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.3 11.2 18.6 86.1 53.6 43.9 6.9 10.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.8 5.7 15.5 90.4 58.1 43.7 3.7 5.0 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.1 11.0 14.5 84.7 55.2 42.6 4.8 8.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.2 5.1 15.7 82.3 51.0 40.7 3.2 5.0 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.4 15.2 20.1 86.5 53.8 44.8 3.3 15.0 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.2 9.2 16.1 90.8 58.5 43.9 2.7 7.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.0 9.2 15.2 83.0 54.5 40.4 4.5 7.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.1 15.0 104.4 59.8 51.0 2.3 5.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.3 13.0 19.3 80.8 49.4 42.8 10.2 13.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 6.1 15.8 15.5 98.1 60.0 49.5 2.3 12.3 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.6 8.1 19.1 83.5 50.7 44.1 5.7 8.0 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.5 12.5 17.5 99.9 62.5 46.7 2.4 7.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.2 15.9 97.7 57.6 48.6 2.9 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.4 12.3 15.9 92.8 58.1 47.4 3.0 6.1 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.6 12.3 18.3 87.8 55.1 44.7 6.0 10.3 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.0 12.4 19.0 101.3 58.7 47.4 4.1 8.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.5 7.7 15.6 88.1 52.5 44.1 3.0 6.8 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.8 10.6 18.4 104.0 59.7 49.6 2.5 8.5 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.4 6.3 16.2 84.2 54.5 42.1 3.7 5.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 11.2 19.9 19.1 80.3 48.5 42.5 10.9 20.0 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.7 7.7 15.6 99.4 58.7 50.0 3.1 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------