***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.1 17.6 106.0 59.9 48.3 7.2 11.8 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.6 13.2 15.4 104.1 60.9 49.9 4.1 8.9 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.4 14.8 16.9 101.3 60.5 48.1 5.3 11.8 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 9.8 21.5 18.8 93.5 59.1 48.0 9.6 20.4 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.5 13.6 19.6 105.6 62.9 51.7 5.5 7.3 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.0 11.5 18.3 86.3 50.6 44.4 8.1 11.0 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 6.2 12.0 15.6 105.5 64.0 50.4 4.5 10.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 13.2 26.8 16.5 85.6 53.0 43.1 16.7 25.9 32.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.4 14.0 19.4 102.8 61.8 49.5 3.6 9.6 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.7 12.6 18.6 92.9 56.3 46.0 9.7 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.9 17.1 94.2 58.7 47.3 6.4 9.8 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.5 13.9 15.1 87.2 53.3 43.9 9.0 12.9 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 6.3 12.9 17.9 91.9 54.3 45.8 8.7 11.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.8 18.5 21.4 101.3 61.4 49.4 7.5 15.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.9 17.9 93.3 59.3 48.5 5.5 8.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 6.1 12.0 17.6 92.5 56.3 46.5 7.3 11.6 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.9 13.0 13.3 91.3 55.9 47.5 5.0 11.5 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.9 11.4 20.6 95.3 54.0 46.0 6.4 10.0 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 8.9 20.5 15.8 101.9 60.8 49.3 9.7 17.2 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.0 13.7 19.6 89.8 50.9 44.7 9.1 13.6 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.9 13.9 18.7 104.2 61.1 49.3 6.5 10.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 6.0 11.1 13.5 86.2 54.7 46.1 5.9 9.8 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.7 17.1 102.8 60.9 50.1 6.9 13.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.4 18.1 20.2 100.7 58.4 48.2 5.7 11.4 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.4 16.4 21.1 104.8 62.9 50.3 7.2 11.9 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 6.0 14.3 19.2 106.4 60.2 48.8 8.1 12.1 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 14.9 17.2 19.4 105.2 61.7 49.6 7.2 12.3 18.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.1 14.2 17.9 92.3 58.9 47.8 7.4 10.6 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.3 16.4 21.1 95.7 53.8 46.7 9.8 15.9 25.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.5 16.7 16.1 106.9 62.7 50.4 2.4 10.1 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------