***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 5.4 6.7 20.4 161.9 79.2 68.1 2.2 3.6 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 7.9 8.6 16.6 138.7 74.5 62.9 1.8 2.6 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 10.4 15.3 21.1 164.7 80.5 68.0 2.2 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 13.3 17.8 28.1 190.3 83.1 73.0 6.2 7.9 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 9.7 13.3 24.2 188.5 84.1 71.8 3.0 4.8 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 12.4 19.1 31.9 210.1 85.6 80.2 3.8 8.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.3 8.4 15.8 126.8 69.1 61.6 1.2 4.0 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 19.7 33.3 34.4 200.2 86.2 78.1 7.9 9.9 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 8.9 20.3 23.6 178.3 84.3 71.5 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 10.9 15.9 33.2 193.1 86.0 75.0 2.9 5.9 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 7.6 18.1 27.7 201.9 85.4 73.3 1.2 4.3 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 12.0 22.8 27.9 201.0 84.4 76.7 3.2 6.1 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 13.1 21.3 28.8 203.1 84.6 75.5 3.9 6.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 15.8 20.6 28.0 160.5 79.9 69.2 5.4 8.0 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 12.6 17.5 23.2 171.3 80.2 67.7 2.8 4.8 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 10.1 16.9 26.5 199.3 85.1 75.3 2.0 4.2 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 4.1 5.3 15.7 121.9 69.5 61.7 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 13.5 24.2 31.8 180.9 83.8 74.1 2.9 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 7.8 9.5 17.5 145.3 76.5 64.7 1.9 4.3 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 12.6 18.6 33.2 182.7 83.3 75.0 4.0 7.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 8.9 13.0 22.2 170.2 81.3 69.0 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 6.7 7.0 16.9 129.2 73.0 64.0 0.8 3.5 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 8.7 10.2 19.3 149.3 77.0 65.7 2.8 5.6 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 11.7 16.8 26.5 170.0 82.3 70.5 3.2 5.8 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 9.6 12.1 22.0 160.6 78.8 66.6 1.9 5.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 12.2 19.7 28.0 198.6 85.5 79.3 2.4 3.8 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 6.5 8.0 20.2 151.9 76.5 66.1 2.4 3.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 11.1 20.3 28.3 197.4 84.4 73.7 2.5 3.7 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 21.6 28.6 31.4 174.5 82.7 73.6 3.3 11.3 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 6.2 7.2 17.4 143.6 74.7 63.8 0.6 3.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------