***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 24.2 24.5 22.9 0.6 60.2 55.8 21.5 23.4 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.0 22.6 0.3 57.5 53.1 22.3 24.8 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 24.7 25.7 23.1 0.6 59.6 55.6 22.3 24.0 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.2 18.3 20.4 0.5 57.8 55.6 13.9 16.2 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 24.5 25.7 20.8 0.3 56.1 54.3 21.9 23.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 20.4 24.6 18.5 0.4 60.4 54.6 20.6 22.3 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.4 22.6 0.4 57.0 53.5 22.2 24.0 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 10.3 13.4 19.0 0.1 54.6 52.7 10.7 12.7 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 24.1 25.3 21.2 0.4 57.9 55.0 21.5 23.2 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 21.3 25.0 19.8 0.3 56.5 54.2 21.4 23.2 26.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 21.6 25.0 20.6 0.2 54.6 53.5 21.9 23.2 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 20.7 23.6 20.2 0.1 54.6 52.7 21.0 22.1 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 21.8 25.1 19.4 0.1 55.4 52.8 22.0 23.6 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 22.0 24.9 20.8 0.3 57.1 53.8 21.8 24.2 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 22.3 25.6 21.6 0.7 61.4 57.4 22.5 23.8 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 22.5 25.8 20.1 0.2 56.1 53.8 22.5 24.2 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 24.1 24.6 22.4 0.3 57.6 52.9 22.3 23.7 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 20.9 24.2 19.3 0.4 57.1 54.3 21.2 23.0 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.6 24.6 22.7 0.4 58.2 53.7 22.0 24.2 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 15.9 19.2 16.5 0.2 56.2 52.5 16.6 18.6 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.9 22.1 0.5 58.0 55.3 21.7 23.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.8 22.3 0.4 59.1 54.3 22.1 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.9 22.8 0.5 59.2 54.9 22.6 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 21.2 24.9 20.9 0.5 58.9 55.2 21.6 23.3 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 21.8 25.2 21.1 0.6 58.4 55.7 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 21.3 23.9 19.5 0.1 54.2 52.6 21.4 23.1 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 24.2 25.2 22.0 0.6 59.2 55.7 22.4 23.5 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 24.4 26.1 20.7 0.5 59.5 56.0 21.7 23.2 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 16.0 19.4 18.2 0.2 55.7 53.1 16.1 19.0 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.7 22.7 0.4 58.3 54.2 22.0 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------