***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 22.0 25.0 22.7 1.2 67.7 59.2 22.3 23.7 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 24.7 25.7 22.4 0.9 63.2 56.3 22.5 24.1 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 22.5 25.9 23.0 1.3 68.5 60.1 22.3 23.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.2 18.3 20.3 1.2 67.9 60.3 15.3 16.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 24.7 25.1 20.9 1.2 67.6 59.8 22.3 24.0 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 23.9 23.9 18.7 1.4 70.4 61.3 21.2 21.9 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 22.1 24.8 22.3 0.9 61.8 56.0 21.5 24.0 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.2 12.2 19.1 1.1 65.2 58.5 10.2 11.4 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 23.8 24.4 21.3 1.4 68.0 60.6 22.0 23.0 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 21.5 23.8 20.0 1.3 67.4 60.1 21.6 22.8 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 21.8 24.0 20.7 1.2 67.4 59.3 22.1 23.3 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 21.1 23.1 20.3 1.1 65.4 58.1 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.9 19.4 1.0 65.4 57.6 22.6 23.3 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 22.0 25.1 20.8 1.2 63.6 59.3 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 24.5 26.2 21.4 1.4 70.5 61.5 22.2 23.8 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 25.5 25.4 20.2 1.2 67.8 59.1 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 23.7 24.6 22.1 0.8 59.8 55.4 21.2 22.9 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 23.2 23.5 19.5 1.3 66.1 60.4 21.3 22.6 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 24.0 25.1 22.6 1.0 64.8 57.6 21.8 23.4 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 18.4 18.4 16.5 1.0 61.8 57.8 16.2 17.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 21.7 24.9 22.2 1.3 67.2 60.0 22.4 23.1 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.3 25.4 22.0 0.9 62.1 57.0 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 22.3 25.4 22.6 1.2 66.7 59.5 22.2 24.2 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 24.6 24.4 21.1 1.4 67.9 61.4 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 21.8 25.6 20.9 1.2 67.7 59.4 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 21.4 23.0 19.3 0.9 62.7 56.9 21.6 22.3 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 21.7 25.2 21.8 1.2 67.9 58.7 22.0 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 24.6 26.3 20.7 1.4 69.1 61.2 22.2 24.0 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 16.2 18.2 18.3 1.1 63.3 58.7 16.6 18.0 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 22.3 25.4 22.5 1.0 65.1 57.4 21.5 24.1 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------