***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 23.7 23.6 22.3 1.9 72.8 71.9 20.5 21.6 23.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 23.6 23.8 22.0 1.4 69.1 66.1 20.4 21.8 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 23.2 23.5 22.0 1.4 69.3 66.4 20.2 21.4 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 14.3 15.9 17.9 1.0 65.3 63.2 12.6 14.0 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 21.4 23.2 19.3 0.7 63.0 59.8 20.0 21.1 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 20.4 20.4 16.0 -0.2 53.5 51.1 18.0 20.2 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 23.3 23.5 21.8 1.5 69.5 67.2 19.9 21.0 23.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 9.3 9.0 16.1 -0.4 50.2 48.5 6.9 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 21.1 22.6 20.3 0.7 63.8 60.4 19.4 20.7 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 21.2 21.6 17.8 0.1 56.2 53.7 19.7 20.9 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 21.6 22.1 19.2 0.1 56.7 54.3 19.5 21.3 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 20.5 20.3 17.3 -0.3 51.6 50.0 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 21.5 21.4 18.3 -0.3 50.9 49.8 19.4 21.3 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 21.6 22.8 20.2 1.0 63.8 61.6 20.1 21.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 22.6 23.0 20.9 1.3 66.8 65.4 19.9 21.5 23.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 22.3 22.3 18.5 0.1 55.5 53.9 19.7 22.0 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 22.9 23.0 21.4 1.4 68.6 65.8 19.5 21.1 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 20.5 20.5 16.8 -0.1 53.4 51.6 18.9 20.1 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 23.0 23.3 21.9 1.4 68.4 66.1 19.7 21.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 15.6 14.8 14.2 -0.5 48.4 47.1 13.3 15.2 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 22.8 23.1 21.3 1.0 66.3 63.0 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 23.2 23.3 21.5 1.5 69.5 67.4 20.4 21.3 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 23.3 23.5 21.8 1.4 67.8 66.1 20.1 21.4 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 21.3 21.9 19.9 0.7 61.3 59.2 19.5 20.8 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 22.9 23.2 20.5 1.3 69.4 66.7 20.1 21.5 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 20.3 19.9 16.2 -0.6 48.9 48.0 18.4 20.1 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 23.1 23.4 21.5 1.7 71.5 69.9 19.7 21.0 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 21.8 22.5 19.0 0.9 63.9 62.1 19.9 21.6 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 15.5 15.1 15.9 -0.2 50.6 49.6 13.4 15.0 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 23.2 23.7 22.1 1.6 70.2 67.8 19.5 21.7 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------