***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.7 12.3 0.8 72.2 66.7 10.0 10.8 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 11.3 11.5 11.8 0.6 70.6 64.2 10.0 10.6 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.5 12.3 0.8 73.5 67.8 11.6 12.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 8.1 8.2 9.6 0.9 74.2 69.9 6.5 7.0 7.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 9.7 9.8 9.9 0.7 71.9 67.2 8.4 9.0 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 8.6 8.7 7.5 0.8 75.1 69.2 7.4 7.8 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 11.2 11.3 11.9 0.7 71.8 64.9 9.9 10.5 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 3.5 3.6 7.3 0.5 68.4 63.8 2.1 2.9 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 10.4 10.6 10.0 0.7 73.1 67.6 9.2 10.0 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 10.4 10.5 8.2 0.6 70.7 65.7 9.1 9.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 10.1 10.0 9.2 0.6 69.9 65.9 8.8 9.5 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 8.4 8.4 8.2 0.6 69.9 65.5 7.1 8.0 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 9.6 9.6 8.1 0.7 74.1 68.5 8.6 9.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 11.2 11.3 9.9 0.8 75.7 70.4 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 11.1 11.2 11.0 0.9 76.4 71.5 10.3 10.7 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 10.9 11.0 8.8 0.7 74.1 68.3 9.6 10.4 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.5 11.6 0.6 69.9 64.1 10.3 10.8 11.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 8.6 8.6 7.6 0.7 71.5 67.7 7.5 8.1 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 11.2 11.4 11.9 0.7 71.8 65.4 10.1 10.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 5.1 5.2 5.5 0.5 69.1 65.2 3.8 4.6 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 10.3 10.5 11.4 0.7 72.9 67.5 9.3 9.8 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 10.8 11.1 11.6 0.7 72.4 66.6 9.5 9.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 10.9 11.1 11.8 0.8 73.8 67.5 9.8 10.2 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 10.6 10.6 9.8 0.8 74.8 70.0 9.4 9.9 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 10.9 11.0 10.9 0.7 68.6 64.2 9.9 10.3 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 9.5 9.7 7.6 0.7 73.2 68.0 8.0 8.9 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.6 11.7 0.8 71.9 66.4 9.8 10.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 9.2 9.4 10.0 1.0 78.0 72.0 8.1 8.8 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 7.9 7.6 6.8 0.5 69.1 65.3 6.6 7.2 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 11.2 11.4 12.1 0.7 71.7 65.4 10.0 10.6 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------