***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 10.1 11.2 12.3 0.4 56.6 52.9 10.0 11.0 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 10.3 11.7 12.0 0.3 55.2 52.0 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 11.8 13.1 12.4 0.5 57.5 53.7 11.9 12.7 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.8 8.3 9.6 0.4 55.3 54.8 7.0 7.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 9.0 10.0 9.6 0.3 55.2 53.8 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 7.8 9.1 7.7 0.5 57.8 55.8 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 10.2 11.3 12.1 0.4 54.9 52.3 10.0 11.1 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.7 7.4 0.2 52.7 52.4 2.9 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 9.6 10.6 9.9 0.4 55.6 54.0 9.8 10.5 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.7 10.8 8.2 0.3 54.5 53.1 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 9.4 10.3 8.9 0.2 53.7 52.8 9.5 9.9 10.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.7 8.5 8.2 0.2 54.2 53.4 7.7 8.4 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.1 9.9 7.7 0.3 54.3 53.4 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 10.3 11.2 9.8 0.3 55.9 53.6 9.9 11.1 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 10.3 11.3 11.0 0.6 60.5 56.3 10.5 10.7 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.2 11.0 8.5 0.3 53.9 53.6 10.2 11.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 10.2 11.5 11.8 0.3 55.4 51.7 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.9 8.9 7.5 0.3 55.3 54.0 8.0 8.8 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 10.2 11.4 12.0 0.3 55.5 52.3 10.2 11.0 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.1 5.4 0.3 53.3 54.1 4.2 5.0 5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 9.7 10.8 11.4 0.4 55.4 53.5 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.5 10.6 11.6 0.3 56.5 52.3 9.9 10.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.8 11.3 11.9 0.4 56.0 53.3 10.0 10.8 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 9.9 10.7 9.6 0.4 56.7 54.4 9.6 10.5 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 10.0 11.1 10.8 0.4 55.0 52.5 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.8 7.5 0.3 52.3 53.2 8.8 9.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 10.2 11.4 11.7 0.5 57.2 53.2 10.7 11.1 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 8.5 9.5 10.0 0.5 58.4 56.3 8.6 9.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.9 7.7 6.9 0.3 54.1 53.7 7.2 7.6 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 10.2 11.4 12.2 0.4 55.5 52.5 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------