***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 11.1 11.1 12.3 1.4 70.6 65.5 8.6 9.3 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.9 11.0 11.8 1.1 65.1 62.7 8.5 9.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 12.7 12.8 12.2 1.2 69.4 65.2 10.5 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 7.5 8.1 9.6 1.4 73.1 68.6 5.3 6.2 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 9.6 9.2 9.9 1.2 68.7 65.7 6.8 8.8 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 8.5 9.0 7.4 1.1 72.1 66.5 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.2 10.8 11.9 1.2 67.1 64.2 9.0 9.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 3.4 2.9 7.2 0.8 64.6 63.0 1.1 1.9 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 10.2 9.6 9.9 1.0 66.7 64.6 8.1 8.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 10.2 9.8 8.1 0.9 65.9 63.5 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 9.5 9.5 9.2 0.9 66.2 64.0 7.7 8.5 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 8.3 8.3 8.2 0.9 66.4 63.9 6.0 7.3 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 9.3 9.2 8.0 0.9 67.6 64.6 7.0 8.3 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 10.4 10.5 9.7 1.1 68.4 66.1 9.2 9.6 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 11.0 11.2 11.0 1.4 74.1 70.2 9.0 10.1 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 11.0 10.8 8.7 1.0 69.0 65.5 8.0 9.3 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.7 11.5 1.1 65.7 63.3 9.1 10.3 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 8.1 8.0 7.5 0.9 65.6 64.4 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.2 10.3 11.7 1.0 65.8 62.7 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 5.0 4.7 5.5 0.8 62.7 62.6 3.1 4.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 10.1 10.1 11.3 1.1 69.4 65.3 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 10.5 10.6 11.5 1.1 68.4 64.0 8.7 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 10.8 10.1 11.6 1.0 66.4 63.5 9.0 9.4 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 10.0 10.0 9.7 1.1 68.0 65.8 8.5 9.4 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.5 10.9 11.1 1.3 68.4 65.1 8.4 8.9 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 9.1 9.3 7.5 1.0 68.4 64.6 7.1 8.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 11.8 12.1 11.9 1.4 70.5 66.0 8.4 9.5 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 9.0 9.5 10.0 1.5 75.2 69.8 7.0 7.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 7.5 7.0 6.7 0.8 62.2 61.9 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 10.8 11.5 12.1 1.2 67.4 63.6 8.7 9.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------