***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 11.3 11.2 11.8 1.3 72.2 72.2 8.9 9.8 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 10.7 11.0 11.2 1.2 69.4 68.7 7.9 9.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 12.4 12.5 11.8 1.3 73.5 73.0 9.8 10.9 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 7.3 7.5 9.0 1.5 77.1 75.9 4.5 5.6 6.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 9.5 9.6 9.7 1.2 73.4 72.3 6.4 8.1 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 7.3 7.6 6.5 1.1 72.1 71.8 5.0 5.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 10.4 10.8 11.2 1.2 68.1 68.2 7.7 9.1 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 2.6 2.2 6.4 0.8 69.7 68.7 0.5 1.1 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 10.0 10.1 9.7 1.3 74.9 74.1 7.0 8.5 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 9.7 9.8 7.6 1.0 72.2 71.0 7.2 8.2 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 9.2 9.6 8.9 1.1 73.6 72.6 6.6 7.8 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 7.1 7.4 7.7 1.0 71.5 70.7 5.1 5.9 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 8.5 8.8 8.0 1.3 76.5 75.7 6.1 7.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 10.6 11.0 9.6 1.6 80.3 78.9 7.6 8.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 9.8 10.1 10.4 1.4 77.3 75.9 8.3 8.9 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 10.3 10.7 8.6 1.3 75.9 75.0 8.2 9.0 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 10.5 10.3 10.8 1.1 67.4 66.4 9.0 9.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 7.5 7.7 7.1 1.1 73.8 71.5 5.0 6.1 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 10.5 10.9 11.3 1.3 71.1 70.8 8.0 9.0 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 4.2 4.3 5.1 0.8 70.1 68.5 2.0 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 10.1 10.3 11.0 1.3 74.8 74.2 7.3 8.6 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 10.1 10.2 11.2 1.3 72.2 70.5 7.8 8.5 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 10.3 10.8 11.2 1.4 74.1 73.7 7.7 8.7 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 9.7 10.1 9.5 1.4 78.6 76.0 7.3 8.1 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 10.7 10.3 10.7 1.0 69.5 67.5 6.9 9.3 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 8.3 8.5 7.1 1.3 74.7 74.5 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 11.9 12.1 11.3 1.2 71.5 70.0 6.8 10.5 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 8.7 9.0 9.5 1.6 80.1 77.5 5.9 7.2 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 6.9 7.1 6.1 0.9 70.3 68.4 4.8 5.7 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 11.1 11.3 11.6 1.3 71.1 70.5 7.9 9.7 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------