***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 53.3 67.9 67.8 126.3 73.4 61.0 36.5 48.3 54.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 44.0 57.6 64.6 123.8 70.1 60.7 29.1 39.4 51.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 52.1 68.2 66.5 124.7 73.2 60.6 36.2 47.1 62.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 63.3 64.1 75.9 112.7 60.8 56.2 51.3 58.8 67.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 51.8 68.2 73.9 113.1 64.3 56.6 35.0 44.8 69.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 41.0 56.5 84.2 99.0 53.3 49.9 40.7 55.7 65.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 41.8 52.1 66.2 124.1 71.1 60.9 22.7 36.0 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 73.2 85.4 72.1 100.2 49.8 49.3 75.6 85.5 100.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 35.3 55.1 71.9 113.3 65.6 56.0 38.9 46.3 55.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 43.4 54.4 78.0 106.1 56.7 52.5 44.3 51.9 63.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 46.9 54.3 66.5 111.3 60.6 55.4 35.2 41.7 56.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 43.7 55.6 60.5 102.9 52.2 51.1 42.2 55.5 57.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 30.9 42.5 70.8 100.3 48.8 50.8 35.4 42.8 54.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 64.7 75.7 82.2 117.0 67.0 58.8 48.0 57.5 73.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 48.5 51.3 67.9 108.9 58.8 53.7 34.1 45.6 54.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 49.4 53.4 69.0 105.3 57.4 52.6 33.7 43.9 62.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 43.4 60.4 63.3 123.1 67.8 60.9 24.8 36.6 58.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 62.6 64.2 86.8 104.7 56.1 52.8 44.9 53.9 81.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 57.9 77.7 64.5 124.4 71.2 60.6 38.8 51.0 68.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 43.2 63.2 87.0 97.8 51.2 49.0 45.8 62.4 67.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 56.5 56.2 66.4 120.2 69.8 58.7 38.4 49.9 55.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 48.2 49.1 63.6 122.4 65.6 60.5 24.4 43.9 49.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 49.1 67.0 66.7 124.3 71.7 60.3 35.8 42.9 65.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 59.4 71.7 78.8 113.1 63.8 56.4 47.0 54.5 73.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 66.2 69.2 83.6 123.2 72.0 61.3 33.5 51.6 65.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 34.4 45.4 61.2 95.5 45.5 46.7 39.9 46.7 55.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 56.2 69.6 80.4 125.8 72.7 61.9 36.7 50.9 61.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 51.6 49.4 70.2 105.9 56.3 52.8 34.6 47.6 53.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 89.0 86.5 87.6 104.4 57.7 53.3 69.0 83.1 92.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 43.2 57.7 65.7 124.7 72.0 60.8 28.0 37.3 52.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------