***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 18.4 22.9 13.9 119.9 69.3 55.8 12.3 16.2 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.2 15.5 14.3 115.0 69.3 58.0 9.0 12.0 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.0 17.5 13.8 119.1 70.1 56.8 10.3 12.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.3 20.3 16.2 108.1 63.0 53.6 8.8 13.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.5 20.8 15.2 106.4 60.4 52.4 11.0 15.3 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.8 16.3 19.4 99.1 60.1 50.8 5.7 12.9 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 13.6 18.8 15.5 122.6 72.4 59.7 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 25.4 26.9 16.4 101.3 55.3 50.5 15.5 21.5 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.4 14.8 109.3 63.2 53.0 7.1 11.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 19.7 21.2 17.0 103.7 58.7 51.3 10.6 14.6 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.3 15.7 13.6 103.6 61.5 51.5 5.2 9.1 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.5 15.3 12.9 99.2 57.2 50.9 7.6 10.7 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.0 15.3 96.4 56.8 51.0 4.9 10.4 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 20.9 23.7 17.7 107.9 64.1 54.4 14.9 18.5 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.8 17.4 15.3 116.4 67.9 53.9 4.5 7.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.0 14.8 14.4 98.0 61.0 50.5 5.6 8.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.2 11.5 13.9 109.8 64.0 55.7 6.3 8.9 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.3 18.0 18.9 97.9 56.3 50.2 8.2 14.2 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.3 20.7 13.5 110.7 68.5 56.7 8.8 10.6 20.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 19.4 17.3 19.6 96.3 49.6 48.9 10.4 17.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.0 19.0 12.8 112.5 65.4 54.1 9.3 12.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.9 13.6 12.8 104.1 61.1 54.2 7.3 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.8 17.4 13.4 107.6 66.8 56.1 8.3 13.1 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 18.8 22.9 16.9 104.8 61.2 53.0 10.7 17.0 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.6 19.9 17.1 119.5 67.7 56.2 8.0 12.6 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.4 12.5 93.3 57.3 51.0 6.2 10.5 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.5 19.7 17.1 123.2 68.9 56.3 9.2 15.0 19.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.4 16.4 15.4 103.1 63.2 51.8 8.6 13.7 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 26.3 24.5 18.9 96.8 55.4 49.7 16.2 22.3 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.5 19.0 14.5 120.0 71.9 58.7 9.6 12.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------