***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.5 12.3 17.5 105.5 62.5 49.7 2.9 4.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.2 11.3 16.3 104.1 65.4 51.8 2.5 5.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.9 15.2 16.6 101.3 63.4 49.6 2.7 6.3 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.9 23.9 21.6 106.4 69.9 51.7 4.0 10.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.3 15.6 21.3 109.2 71.0 53.2 3.7 7.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.1 11.0 26.5 103.5 63.4 51.8 6.0 9.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 7.1 8.1 17.1 107.3 67.8 51.7 2.3 4.1 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.6 19.9 20.3 96.0 60.7 50.1 10.1 18.8 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.2 15.3 20.4 106.9 68.1 52.6 2.9 8.6 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.3 15.4 21.7 98.8 62.8 51.2 6.9 10.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.8 10.9 18.9 109.3 70.3 52.8 3.7 5.0 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.9 17.3 101.5 63.9 50.3 4.8 8.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.4 7.4 21.1 102.2 64.5 51.7 3.2 5.0 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.8 17.3 20.5 95.1 61.2 51.3 3.3 15.0 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.3 9.8 18.6 99.8 63.3 50.1 2.7 7.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.2 12.8 20.0 105.7 67.0 52.1 4.5 7.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 8.9 11.9 16.0 108.7 64.7 53.1 2.3 5.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.0 15.9 23.9 93.7 59.2 50.5 10.2 13.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.2 17.6 16.1 103.3 65.4 51.8 2.3 12.3 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.4 8.8 25.0 92.8 56.6 49.7 5.7 8.0 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.3 14.5 17.9 107.4 69.2 51.3 2.4 7.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.9 12.8 15.2 101.1 60.7 51.8 2.9 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.2 13.9 16.5 101.2 62.8 51.5 3.0 6.1 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.2 15.6 20.4 94.9 59.3 50.3 6.0 10.3 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.0 16.6 22.8 110.4 67.3 51.9 4.1 8.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.5 11.1 18.7 104.0 59.2 52.3 3.0 6.8 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.8 21.5 108.9 63.4 50.8 2.5 8.5 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.5 11.0 19.9 101.1 65.9 51.0 3.7 5.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.8 21.8 24.2 92.9 58.8 50.6 10.9 20.0 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.9 9.9 16.6 103.4 64.9 50.8 3.1 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------