***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.2 14.5 15.5 101.9 63.5 47.3 7.2 11.8 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.8 13.3 14.2 99.7 61.2 46.6 4.1 8.9 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.2 16.0 16.5 110.2 64.5 49.7 5.3 11.8 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 11.1 21.5 19.1 101.3 58.5 50.2 9.6 20.4 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.3 12.7 19.0 100.9 61.5 49.6 5.5 7.3 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 5.3 12.6 22.2 92.7 54.3 47.4 8.1 11.0 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 5.5 11.9 13.8 94.7 60.4 46.4 4.5 10.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 13.0 27.8 18.6 97.4 57.5 48.6 16.7 25.9 32.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.9 18.8 101.2 61.0 50.0 3.6 9.6 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.7 12.8 20.5 101.1 59.9 49.7 9.7 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.0 16.0 17.4 103.5 63.0 50.1 6.4 9.8 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 8.3 14.7 15.4 97.7 57.3 49.4 9.0 12.9 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.8 12.2 17.9 91.5 53.1 47.7 8.7 11.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.6 18.2 19.7 105.1 60.8 50.1 7.5 15.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.9 16.7 94.8 58.7 49.3 5.5 8.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.4 12.2 18.3 100.4 58.8 49.4 7.3 11.6 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.9 13.2 12.5 88.8 56.7 44.2 5.0 11.5 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 18.4 23.1 105.3 60.3 50.1 6.4 10.0 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 9.3 21.0 14.8 105.6 62.7 47.7 9.7 17.2 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 7.8 13.7 22.4 94.8 51.4 46.3 9.1 13.6 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.4 14.7 16.8 101.9 62.0 48.6 6.5 10.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 6.2 12.1 13.1 91.6 56.5 45.9 5.9 9.8 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.4 17.6 15.9 110.4 64.4 50.0 6.9 13.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.7 19.7 20.5 109.7 63.3 50.6 5.7 11.4 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.5 14.4 19.4 97.5 57.6 47.7 7.2 11.9 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 5.4 12.2 14.9 82.8 51.0 44.5 8.1 12.1 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.2 16.0 17.8 97.4 59.7 47.2 7.2 12.3 18.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.7 14.4 18.3 100.0 59.4 50.2 7.4 10.6 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.0 22.6 23.0 105.1 58.8 50.3 9.8 15.9 25.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 5.3 16.8 14.9 102.8 63.2 47.7 2.4 10.1 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------