***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 6.1 8.3 20.9 202.2 86.4 80.1 2.2 3.6 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 8.8 13.0 19.9 200.1 87.9 78.7 1.8 2.6 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 12.2 19.9 19.7 188.5 87.2 78.5 2.2 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 12.9 15.2 19.0 144.0 77.1 70.9 6.2 7.9 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 10.0 12.0 18.5 144.9 76.0 71.3 3.0 4.8 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 9.4 9.1 16.1 101.4 57.7 54.9 3.8 8.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 9.6 15.8 19.7 195.0 87.7 78.2 1.2 4.0 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 11.8 16.1 16.9 108.2 60.7 57.8 7.9 9.9 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 9.2 16.1 18.0 146.3 81.8 70.6 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 7.1 11.8 18.8 126.9 71.5 64.7 2.9 5.9 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 5.0 8.2 16.7 132.7 70.5 67.1 1.2 4.3 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 7.3 10.2 14.9 114.4 64.9 60.7 3.2 6.1 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.3 10.5 16.6 113.6 66.9 59.9 3.9 6.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 17.3 24.7 24.2 179.5 87.9 77.8 5.4 8.0 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 11.0 14.4 17.3 134.2 76.1 67.0 2.8 4.8 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 5.5 9.6 16.3 119.1 67.8 62.5 2.0 4.2 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 8.1 21.2 20.8 210.8 91.0 80.0 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 12.6 16.1 20.9 129.7 74.7 65.8 2.9 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 8.3 11.4 20.2 199.7 88.5 78.7 1.9 4.3 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 8.3 10.9 20.0 111.2 64.0 58.8 4.0 7.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 9.6 15.6 19.0 175.1 87.2 76.8 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 7.9 14.9 22.5 218.5 90.9 80.3 0.8 3.5 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 9.3 12.9 20.8 199.9 89.8 79.5 2.8 5.6 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 12.0 17.3 21.1 156.2 83.1 72.9 3.2 5.8 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 11.3 15.2 24.3 187.8 85.4 81.0 1.9 5.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 5.4 7.3 15.1 102.7 59.1 55.5 2.4 3.8 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 7.7 12.6 24.0 199.1 87.2 81.5 2.4 3.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 5.2 11.9 16.6 124.5 72.0 64.8 2.5 3.7 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 20.0 20.8 21.5 130.6 71.6 65.4 3.3 11.3 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 6.8 11.6 19.7 196.1 87.6 78.6 0.6 3.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------