***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 21.3 21.0 20.7 -1.2 23.7 30.6 21.1 22.7 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 20.9 20.8 20.7 -1.2 24.8 30.8 21.5 22.7 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 21.3 20.9 20.8 -1.3 22.1 29.3 21.6 22.9 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 14.2 13.9 19.0 -1.1 27.4 33.7 14.1 15.2 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 21.6 21.4 19.3 -1.2 26.8 31.9 21.7 23.0 24.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 20.2 20.9 17.7 -0.7 37.9 40.4 20.5 21.1 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 21.1 20.3 20.7 -1.2 23.4 30.9 20.9 22.4 23.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 9.2 9.8 17.8 -1.0 30.6 35.4 9.9 10.7 11.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 20.8 20.7 19.7 -1.3 25.8 30.8 21.1 22.2 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 21.0 20.9 18.5 -1.2 27.9 32.9 21.2 22.0 23.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 21.0 21.4 18.9 -1.1 28.9 33.7 21.7 22.0 23.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 20.3 20.8 18.6 -1.0 31.1 36.1 20.8 21.5 21.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 21.4 21.6 18.3 -1.0 33.1 36.8 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 21.2 20.8 19.3 -1.5 22.2 26.6 21.5 22.9 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 21.6 21.5 19.7 -0.9 30.5 36.0 21.7 22.6 23.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 21.9 21.7 18.7 -1.0 30.5 35.4 21.8 23.1 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 20.3 20.2 20.5 -1.3 24.3 29.7 20.6 22.0 23.7 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 20.3 20.4 17.8 -1.3 26.9 31.9 20.9 21.6 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 20.6 20.6 20.8 -1.3 23.7 30.2 21.0 22.1 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 15.3 15.8 15.8 -1.1 29.1 34.3 16.2 17.0 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 21.0 20.8 20.3 -1.3 23.1 29.4 21.4 22.6 23.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 20.9 20.9 20.4 -1.4 22.5 28.5 21.1 22.6 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 20.9 20.8 20.5 -1.4 20.6 28.4 21.7 23.0 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 20.8 20.6 19.3 -1.4 23.3 29.0 21.2 22.3 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 21.1 21.0 19.3 -1.3 23.5 29.6 21.3 22.9 23.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 20.5 21.0 18.1 -0.8 36.2 39.2 20.9 21.8 22.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 21.1 20.8 20.0 -1.2 23.9 30.2 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 21.4 21.3 19.4 -1.0 29.8 35.6 21.6 22.5 23.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 15.2 15.4 16.9 -1.3 26.8 32.2 16.0 16.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 20.9 20.6 20.9 -1.2 24.1 30.9 21.1 22.6 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------