***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.4 23.4 -0.1 47.6 48.5 21.5 23.4 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 22.2 24.8 23.5 0.0 49.9 49.3 22.3 24.8 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 21.8 24.4 23.5 -0.1 51.0 48.1 22.3 24.0 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.2 21.7 -0.2 50.0 48.6 13.9 16.2 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 24.4 23.4 21.8 -0.1 49.5 48.5 21.9 23.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.0 23.6 20.0 0.1 54.0 51.6 20.6 22.3 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.5 24.0 23.4 0.0 48.3 49.7 22.2 24.0 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.2 20.4 0.0 53.0 50.3 10.7 12.7 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.1 22.2 -0.1 49.1 48.5 21.5 23.2 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.5 21.1 0.0 51.1 49.6 21.4 23.2 26.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.1 21.4 -0.1 49.9 49.3 21.9 23.2 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.9 21.2 0.0 52.4 50.3 21.0 22.1 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.8 20.7 0.0 53.6 50.7 22.0 23.6 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 21.7 24.8 22.0 -0.1 52.4 48.0 21.8 24.2 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 24.7 23.8 22.0 -0.1 49.6 49.2 22.5 23.8 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.5 21.1 0.0 50.8 49.8 22.5 24.2 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 24.2 23.4 23.2 0.0 47.9 48.9 22.3 23.7 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.5 20.5 0.0 54.0 49.9 21.2 23.0 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 21.7 24.3 23.5 0.0 51.4 48.9 22.0 24.2 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.3 19.0 18.3 0.0 53.5 50.4 16.6 18.6 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 21.5 23.5 22.9 -0.1 50.9 47.6 21.7 23.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 21.7 24.2 23.2 -0.1 48.4 48.3 22.1 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 21.7 24.7 23.3 -0.1 52.0 48.2 22.6 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 21.1 24.1 22.0 0.0 53.3 48.7 21.6 23.3 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 24.4 23.6 21.9 -0.1 49.3 48.1 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 21.3 24.0 20.5 0.0 54.6 50.9 21.4 23.1 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 24.1 23.5 22.6 -0.1 48.4 48.8 22.4 23.5 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.2 21.9 -0.1 50.8 49.1 21.7 23.2 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.5 19.3 19.5 0.1 54.4 50.3 16.1 19.0 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 22.1 24.4 23.6 0.0 49.9 49.4 22.0 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------