***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 21.9 23.4 21.6 -0.5 48.2 44.3 22.3 23.7 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 21.8 23.8 21.7 -0.3 47.7 45.5 22.5 24.1 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 22.2 23.8 21.6 -0.5 44.7 43.7 22.3 23.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 14.6 16.3 19.8 -0.6 42.2 42.9 15.3 16.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 22.1 23.0 19.9 -0.6 41.8 42.8 22.3 24.0 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 20.8 21.4 18.0 -0.6 41.3 44.4 21.2 21.9 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 21.6 23.7 21.7 -0.3 48.1 46.0 21.5 24.0 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 10.1 11.1 18.4 -0.6 42.1 43.5 10.2 11.4 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 21.4 22.5 20.3 -0.7 40.6 42.5 22.0 23.0 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 21.2 22.4 19.1 -0.7 39.5 42.7 21.6 22.8 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 21.7 22.7 19.4 -0.6 41.3 42.8 22.1 23.3 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 21.0 21.9 19.2 -0.6 41.9 43.5 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 21.9 22.8 18.7 -0.6 41.4 43.6 22.6 23.3 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 21.7 22.6 19.9 -0.7 39.6 42.1 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 21.6 23.4 20.1 -0.6 40.7 43.2 22.2 23.8 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 22.4 23.6 19.2 -0.7 41.3 43.3 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 20.7 22.5 21.6 -0.3 47.7 46.2 21.2 22.9 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 20.9 22.2 18.4 -0.7 39.1 42.5 21.3 22.6 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 21.6 23.0 21.7 -0.4 47.3 44.9 21.8 23.4 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 16.4 16.7 16.4 -0.6 41.6 42.7 16.2 17.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 21.5 22.7 21.0 -0.6 41.1 42.7 22.4 23.1 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 21.4 23.5 21.4 -0.4 47.0 45.2 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 22.0 23.8 21.3 -0.5 44.7 43.5 22.2 24.2 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 21.3 22.2 19.9 -0.7 40.5 42.4 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 21.5 23.1 20.1 -0.6 45.4 43.1 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 21.2 22.1 18.6 -0.6 41.2 44.5 21.6 22.3 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 21.5 23.4 20.9 -0.5 48.1 44.1 22.0 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 21.7 23.3 19.9 -0.6 41.0 42.7 22.2 24.0 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 15.9 17.2 17.4 -0.7 39.6 42.4 16.6 18.0 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 21.8 23.7 21.8 -0.4 47.2 45.1 21.5 24.1 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------