***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 20.2 20.7 20.7 -0.6 38.5 44.4 20.3 21.8 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 20.2 20.7 20.7 -0.6 39.0 44.1 20.4 22.4 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 20.3 20.6 20.8 -0.6 36.6 43.7 20.4 22.3 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 13.2 14.2 19.2 -0.5 40.2 45.3 13.6 14.8 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 20.5 21.1 19.4 -0.5 40.7 45.2 20.8 21.7 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 18.6 20.0 17.8 -0.1 46.9 47.7 19.2 20.3 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 19.8 20.2 20.7 -0.6 37.5 43.8 20.1 21.7 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.0 9.1 18.2 -0.2 43.8 47.4 8.1 9.8 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 19.7 20.8 19.7 -0.5 39.3 44.5 20.0 21.2 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 19.8 20.4 18.7 -0.4 40.7 45.6 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 19.5 21.1 19.0 -0.4 41.7 46.5 20.4 21.6 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 18.9 19.8 19.0 -0.2 43.1 47.7 19.3 20.4 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 19.6 20.8 18.5 -0.2 43.4 47.5 20.1 21.4 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 22.4 20.6 19.4 -0.8 40.4 42.7 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 20.5 21.3 19.5 -0.4 39.7 46.2 20.9 21.7 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 20.3 21.6 18.8 -0.3 43.3 46.9 20.6 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 19.7 19.9 20.5 -0.7 38.8 42.9 19.8 21.6 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.2 19.6 18.2 -0.5 41.7 45.4 19.2 20.6 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 20.0 20.3 20.8 -0.6 39.3 43.9 19.5 21.9 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.4 15.6 16.4 -0.1 46.7 48.4 14.3 15.7 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 20.1 20.2 20.3 -0.6 38.0 43.8 20.1 21.7 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 20.5 20.5 20.4 -0.7 39.7 42.4 20.3 22.5 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 20.3 20.6 20.6 -0.7 39.7 43.1 20.5 22.3 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 21.7 20.4 19.4 -0.7 39.1 43.5 20.3 21.2 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 20.4 20.9 19.3 -0.6 40.0 44.1 20.3 21.7 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 19.0 20.6 18.4 0.0 48.1 49.4 19.4 20.7 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 20.0 20.9 20.0 -0.6 39.2 44.4 20.7 21.7 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 20.1 21.4 19.4 -0.4 40.6 45.9 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.6 15.0 17.3 -0.4 45.0 46.3 13.6 16.1 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 20.0 20.3 20.9 -0.6 38.7 44.4 20.1 22.0 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------