***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 19.3 17.3 17.2 -3.8 5.0 10.6 20.5 21.6 23.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 94 6 0 100 17.8 15.5 17.0 -4.0 4.0 8.9 20.4 21.8 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 91 9 0 100 18.5 16.3 17.2 -4.0 5.1 10.2 20.2 21.4 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 11.0 8.9 15.4 -3.1 10.6 16.9 12.6 14.0 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 19.5 16.4 16.0 -3.6 7.9 14.4 20.0 21.1 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 18.0 17.3 14.8 -2.3 22.5 28.0 18.0 20.2 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 91 9 0 100 18.0 15.9 17.0 -3.9 3.8 9.2 19.9 21.0 23.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 6.3 5.3 14.4 -3.4 12.2 18.7 6.9 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 19.2 15.9 16.7 -3.8 5.7 12.8 19.4 20.7 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 18.1 16.4 15.2 -3.6 8.9 15.4 19.7 20.9 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 18.7 16.7 15.8 -3.4 10.2 16.7 19.5 21.3 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 17.2 16.5 15.2 -3.2 12.6 19.4 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 18.9 18.0 15.4 -3.1 14.8 20.5 19.4 21.3 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 18.1 14.2 15.9 -4.5 3.5 9.0 20.1 21.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 18.9 17.9 17.3 -2.6 14.4 20.6 19.9 21.5 23.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 19.2 18.4 15.7 -3.1 13.3 19.0 19.7 22.0 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 17.2 14.5 16.6 -4.1 3.5 8.0 19.5 21.1 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 17.7 15.2 14.2 -3.9 6.3 14.1 18.9 20.1 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 17.4 15.0 17.0 -4.1 4.0 9.0 19.7 21.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 12.9 11.2 12.2 -3.8 8.8 16.6 13.3 15.2 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 87 13 0 100 18.9 16.2 17.1 -4.0 5.7 11.3 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 17.5 14.1 16.5 -4.3 3.1 7.5 20.4 21.3 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 17.9 14.5 16.9 -4.2 4.3 8.9 20.1 21.4 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 18.6 15.7 15.8 -4.2 4.8 11.1 19.5 20.8 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 88 12 0 100 18.7 15.8 16.0 -3.8 5.7 11.6 20.1 21.5 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 17.9 17.3 14.8 -2.6 18.8 24.8 18.4 20.1 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 18.1 16.6 16.6 -3.8 4.9 10.5 19.7 21.0 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 18.7 17.8 16.4 -2.8 15.0 20.7 19.9 21.6 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 12.7 10.5 13.3 -4.1 6.1 14.0 13.4 15.0 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 17.4 15.9 17.2 -3.9 5.0 9.5 19.5 21.7 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------