***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 10.0 10.0 11.0 -0.7 31.5 35.1 10.0 10.8 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 9.6 9.8 10.9 -0.7 27.8 34.0 10.0 10.6 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 11.3 11.4 10.8 -0.7 27.1 33.1 11.6 12.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 6.2 6.3 8.7 -0.6 30.9 34.9 6.5 7.0 7.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 8.4 8.4 8.7 -0.6 31.1 35.5 8.4 9.0 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 7.1 7.4 7.0 -0.5 33.8 39.4 7.4 7.8 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 9.9 9.8 11.0 -0.6 30.4 35.5 9.9 10.5 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.1 2.0 6.9 -0.6 31.0 36.4 2.1 2.9 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 9.3 9.1 9.1 -0.6 30.3 35.0 9.2 10.0 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.3 9.0 7.5 -0.6 30.0 35.5 9.1 9.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 8.9 8.8 8.2 -0.6 30.4 34.8 8.8 9.5 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.3 7.1 7.7 -0.5 32.2 37.1 7.1 8.0 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.4 8.7 7.3 -0.5 34.2 38.8 8.6 9.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 9.7 9.4 8.9 -0.8 23.3 30.1 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 10.0 10.4 9.5 -0.5 34.8 38.4 10.3 10.7 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 9.6 9.5 8.0 -0.5 32.4 36.8 9.6 10.4 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 10.1 10.0 10.7 -0.7 24.5 32.4 10.3 10.8 11.4 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 7.4 7.4 6.8 -0.6 28.3 35.1 7.5 8.1 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 9.8 9.9 10.8 -0.7 26.0 32.7 10.1 10.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.0 3.8 5.1 -0.5 33.3 37.9 3.8 4.6 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 9.3 9.2 10.2 -0.7 28.9 34.1 9.3 9.8 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 9.2 9.1 10.5 -0.8 23.2 30.6 9.5 9.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 9.5 9.5 10.4 -0.8 22.8 30.5 9.8 10.2 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 9.3 8.9 8.7 -0.7 24.2 32.0 9.4 9.9 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 9.5 9.7 9.5 -0.7 29.5 33.6 9.9 10.3 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 8.1 8.0 7.4 -0.5 31.1 38.1 8.0 8.9 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 10.0 9.8 10.3 -0.6 32.4 35.6 9.8 10.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 8.3 8.1 9.1 -0.5 33.5 37.4 8.1 8.8 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.3 6.4 6.2 -0.6 28.6 35.3 6.6 7.2 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 9.9 10.0 11.1 -0.7 29.4 34.6 10.0 10.6 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------