***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.2 13.2 0.2 53.9 52.1 11.2 12.0 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.3 13.2 0.1 51.3 49.9 11.2 12.2 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.7 12.9 0.1 49.5 49.9 12.8 13.7 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.5 10.9 -0.1 48.8 48.7 7.1 8.6 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.6 10.8 0.0 50.8 48.6 10.1 10.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.0 9.0 0.1 54.1 52.0 9.1 9.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.2 13.2 0.1 51.3 50.0 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.4 9.0 0.1 55.1 51.7 3.4 4.2 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.7 11.1 0.0 51.7 48.7 11.0 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.0 9.6 0.1 55.2 50.4 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.4 10.3 0.0 52.1 50.0 11.2 11.4 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.9 9.8 0.1 54.2 51.4 9.0 9.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 10.3 11.3 9.3 0.0 53.3 51.0 10.2 11.2 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.9 11.0 -0.1 47.7 47.1 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.4 11.4 -0.1 50.5 49.2 11.8 12.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.1 10.0 0.0 51.1 49.7 11.0 11.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.9 12.6 12.9 0.0 49.7 49.3 11.1 12.6 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.0 8.8 0.1 54.0 49.9 9.4 9.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.2 13.0 0.0 50.1 49.2 11.2 12.2 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.4 7.2 0.1 54.4 51.1 5.2 6.1 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.6 12.3 0.0 50.1 50.0 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.3 12.7 0.0 48.2 48.6 10.6 11.4 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.8 12.6 0.0 47.8 47.8 11.2 11.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.3 10.8 0.0 49.7 48.6 11.0 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 12.5 12.1 11.7 0.1 49.5 51.2 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 9.6 10.9 9.4 -0.1 48.6 48.6 9.5 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.4 12.4 0.1 51.6 51.8 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.8 11.1 -0.1 48.7 47.9 9.9 10.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.4 8.2 0.1 52.9 50.6 7.7 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.4 13.3 0.1 50.8 50.3 11.1 12.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------