***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 10.1 10.8 11.6 -0.5 43.5 43.6 10.0 11.0 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 10.4 10.6 11.6 -0.5 40.4 44.3 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 11.7 12.2 11.3 -0.6 39.8 42.2 11.9 12.7 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 6.6 7.0 9.2 -0.7 33.5 40.3 7.0 7.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 8.8 9.3 9.1 -0.6 36.1 40.4 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 7.8 8.5 7.5 -0.5 41.9 43.2 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 10.2 10.5 11.7 -0.4 43.0 45.4 10.0 11.1 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 2.5 3.2 7.4 -0.5 41.2 43.5 2.9 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 9.5 10.1 9.5 -0.6 38.9 41.6 9.8 10.5 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 9.6 10.2 8.0 -0.5 40.6 42.4 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 9.3 9.6 8.6 -0.6 37.3 40.2 9.5 9.9 10.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 7.6 7.9 8.2 -0.5 39.2 41.8 7.7 8.4 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 9.0 9.6 7.7 -0.6 39.7 40.3 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 10.2 10.0 9.4 -0.7 35.6 39.8 9.9 11.1 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 10.2 10.5 9.9 -0.6 36.4 42.0 10.5 10.7 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 10.1 10.3 8.4 -0.6 37.7 40.4 10.2 11.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 10.3 10.7 11.4 -0.4 41.3 44.6 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.8 8.6 7.3 -0.5 39.5 42.5 8.0 8.8 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 10.3 10.3 11.4 -0.5 39.2 42.9 10.2 11.0 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.2 4.8 5.7 -0.4 42.3 44.1 4.2 5.0 5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 9.6 10.1 10.6 -0.6 39.6 41.9 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 9.5 10.0 11.1 -0.6 39.4 42.5 9.9 10.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 9.8 10.1 10.9 -0.6 37.1 40.8 10.0 10.8 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 9.8 9.7 9.2 -0.6 38.1 40.9 9.6 10.5 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 9.9 10.5 9.9 -0.6 40.3 41.6 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 8.6 9.5 7.9 -0.7 41.1 40.0 8.8 9.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 10.1 10.9 10.8 -0.5 43.0 43.4 10.7 11.1 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 8.3 8.7 9.5 -0.6 34.7 41.1 8.6 9.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.8 7.5 6.7 -0.5 39.8 43.0 7.2 7.6 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 10.2 10.6 11.7 -0.5 41.3 44.2 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------