***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 64.0 58.6 72.7 123.7 72.0 65.6 33.2 51.0 53.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 52.6 57.9 68.8 123.4 70.5 63.9 26.6 35.2 57.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 63.0 69.7 69.8 120.1 72.1 63.1 32.8 50.3 67.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 63.8 69.9 80.6 116.4 68.0 58.4 49.7 58.8 68.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 51.1 67.6 71.4 111.0 63.7 55.8 35.0 43.2 69.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 42.6 55.2 72.9 93.7 47.5 45.5 40.3 55.8 66.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 56.6 51.0 68.0 119.8 69.6 62.9 23.6 34.8 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 69.7 87.2 70.7 94.4 48.1 45.3 79.5 88.3 103.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 50.7 52.6 73.0 112.2 65.6 56.9 37.6 46.3 52.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 43.2 54.5 79.2 103.7 57.6 51.6 45.2 51.5 62.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 29.8 46.3 65.3 103.3 56.1 51.6 35.2 41.7 55.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 42.2 53.8 59.9 94.8 48.1 45.8 41.1 54.8 59.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 31.3 40.2 62.9 89.4 42.8 42.9 36.5 41.9 54.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 66.0 68.4 87.3 108.7 61.3 56.0 44.4 60.4 73.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 48.3 51.2 72.7 113.8 65.5 56.3 34.1 45.3 51.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 36.5 44.6 64.5 97.0 50.9 47.5 36.2 43.7 61.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 42.6 57.6 67.7 118.7 66.5 61.1 22.5 34.2 56.7 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 47.2 68.3 84.7 101.5 54.8 50.4 45.3 65.1 83.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 68.5 78.9 69.7 123.3 70.6 63.9 36.6 42.9 68.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 38.4 55.7 74.3 87.9 40.7 41.1 48.2 59.9 67.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 51.2 56.4 71.2 116.6 66.7 59.5 37.0 48.6 56.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 43.7 50.1 70.9 118.6 66.1 60.0 24.7 36.0 50.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 60.4 66.2 70.3 119.8 69.7 62.9 34.6 45.2 65.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 59.8 66.9 80.0 108.9 62.2 55.9 44.2 53.6 72.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 57.0 66.5 78.7 117.6 67.7 61.7 33.6 52.6 66.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 32.6 43.2 54.3 83.2 39.6 39.0 41.6 48.1 54.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 67.7 67.8 76.8 120.5 69.3 63.9 36.1 53.9 61.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 36.3 53.9 75.0 109.7 62.3 54.0 33.8 47.8 53.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 66.1 84.7 81.8 96.0 48.8 46.9 73.9 84.8 92.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 55.9 62.8 69.8 124.1 72.4 65.0 26.1 34.8 53.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------