***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 10.2 19.8 16.5 94.9 58.3 48.6 12.6 16.6 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 7.5 14.2 16.0 101.0 61.7 47.8 7.8 12.7 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 9.4 13.9 15.6 90.2 54.1 44.8 10.1 13.6 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.7 23.3 19.9 102.5 60.2 47.1 10.4 13.2 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 8.7 18.8 18.6 99.0 58.3 46.9 9.4 15.3 21.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 7.3 14.3 20.9 91.3 54.2 44.5 6.6 12.9 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.9 16.4 99.8 58.9 49.3 4.8 12.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 14.6 24.4 20.2 90.5 52.2 44.6 14.7 23.4 30.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 7.2 15.9 18.3 95.0 55.2 46.1 8.8 13.1 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.3 16.2 21.4 93.6 53.4 45.6 12.0 15.4 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 6.4 16.6 16.9 93.1 56.2 45.3 5.7 13.3 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 6.4 13.1 17.3 92.4 55.7 45.2 8.1 10.3 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 5.9 10.4 19.1 90.9 53.5 43.9 4.9 9.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 8.2 18.9 21.3 90.4 52.1 42.4 16.4 18.8 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 5.0 16.7 17.9 99.6 61.3 45.4 4.4 9.4 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 6.7 13.9 17.8 92.4 55.1 44.5 7.0 11.5 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.3 11.6 16.9 106.8 64.4 48.5 3.6 8.6 11.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 16.7 23.2 93.0 52.5 44.8 6.8 15.8 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 6.6 17.1 15.7 98.0 60.3 46.0 9.7 13.0 20.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 8.7 13.9 22.1 88.6 52.2 43.5 10.7 13.3 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 10.9 18.4 16.7 91.9 54.6 44.7 9.0 18.0 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 6.6 13.7 17.4 102.7 62.3 45.8 5.7 10.1 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 6.5 14.2 15.6 94.6 58.1 44.0 8.7 13.0 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 19.1 15.4 19.4 88.8 50.9 43.5 12.6 15.2 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 7.3 15.1 18.5 94.8 59.6 47.5 6.8 12.7 19.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 6.4 13.2 16.8 88.4 51.2 42.2 5.6 13.1 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 10.1 20.6 17.4 93.2 59.3 48.4 8.8 17.4 23.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 7.7 14.2 19.6 100.8 58.5 45.1 8.3 12.1 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 25.1 21.1 23.2 92.2 52.3 44.9 14.6 18.8 35.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 8.5 14.5 16.1 99.1 58.7 47.9 9.5 12.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------