***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 14.9 11.9 19.3 116.7 65.1 58.3 3.6 9.0 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.9 13.8 18.5 122.7 67.4 56.6 3.1 5.6 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 19.0 18.9 19.6 125.8 69.9 60.5 2.5 10.5 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.6 21.7 21.1 105.0 62.3 53.5 5.0 10.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.0 15.3 21.7 117.0 67.9 57.5 5.2 8.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.2 12.5 22.1 100.7 59.0 50.9 6.2 8.5 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.8 8.1 18.7 120.9 64.7 56.0 1.8 3.8 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 10.4 19.2 22.1 111.2 64.3 54.4 8.2 16.0 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.2 14.9 23.1 125.0 71.7 59.6 3.4 5.1 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.3 15.8 25.3 120.4 67.5 57.9 4.9 9.4 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.6 19.6 113.7 66.5 56.7 3.8 4.8 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.9 11.4 18.5 108.4 65.1 53.9 3.8 7.2 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.6 19.6 99.0 58.5 51.1 3.8 4.4 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.0 17.2 25.9 120.3 66.7 57.7 3.1 9.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.1 10.2 19.8 106.0 64.5 53.6 2.8 5.8 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.6 8.7 19.2 100.7 60.9 52.2 3.7 7.3 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.8 17.5 113.5 62.9 53.5 2.7 7.9 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 16.4 20.8 27.3 117.9 66.2 57.0 8.7 14.6 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.6 17.1 18.6 122.7 67.9 57.7 2.3 12.2 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 8.9 24.7 108.9 60.9 54.4 4.5 8.0 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.8 15.0 20.3 118.1 68.3 58.7 2.6 6.8 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.4 15.1 18.0 113.9 63.7 53.8 2.9 7.0 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 15.3 14.7 18.6 119.8 68.8 58.6 2.6 5.7 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.2 19.3 24.7 122.8 69.0 59.3 4.6 10.3 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.6 17.6 20.8 107.6 61.8 55.6 4.6 12.2 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.6 11.7 16.9 97.6 57.8 50.2 2.6 7.3 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.9 13.1 20.7 114.5 65.1 57.6 4.2 10.0 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.1 20.4 101.4 61.6 52.3 3.7 7.1 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.7 22.6 26.4 112.8 63.8 55.0 7.8 19.5 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.3 15.1 19.6 129.0 69.5 59.0 1.8 6.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------