***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 12.6 17.7 16.6 112.4 63.9 57.1 5.3 10.7 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.6 15.1 15.9 114.4 65.4 55.8 4.0 7.2 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 13.1 16.7 16.4 110.7 64.4 56.8 3.8 12.1 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.5 18.5 16.5 92.5 56.3 51.8 9.6 16.5 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 9.4 9.0 15.8 94.0 57.2 51.7 5.4 7.0 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.4 8.8 16.3 77.4 45.9 42.3 6.4 9.5 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 9.5 16.3 15.5 114.1 64.4 57.5 4.1 7.3 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 15.0 24.6 14.4 77.2 46.2 43.4 15.8 26.5 34.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.8 10.8 15.3 89.6 54.8 49.9 3.6 9.4 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.9 10.4 16.1 84.7 49.8 46.8 8.9 10.5 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.0 12.5 15.4 91.1 57.1 49.8 5.7 8.9 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.6 12.8 13.0 78.0 49.6 44.1 9.1 12.9 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.6 10.0 14.1 73.0 48.2 42.2 7.8 11.2 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.3 16.6 19.2 91.2 55.0 47.9 8.1 13.6 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.7 15.9 91.2 56.9 51.7 5.8 9.1 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.0 10.5 14.1 78.6 50.1 45.1 5.9 10.5 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 12.7 13.0 15.2 108.1 63.9 55.5 4.7 9.1 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.6 14.1 16.7 80.7 47.0 44.5 9.4 15.1 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 19.0 21.8 16.2 111.9 65.8 54.1 5.0 17.1 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 7.4 11.7 14.9 70.5 41.6 39.4 8.3 13.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.4 15.9 101.0 59.7 54.3 6.1 10.5 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.6 14.5 16.2 106.0 64.5 53.1 5.2 9.0 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 6.2 17.4 16.6 105.8 65.6 51.5 5.8 11.1 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.3 14.2 17.4 91.5 53.8 48.1 6.3 13.9 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 13.3 16.0 19.4 113.1 63.9 58.7 4.7 10.9 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 5.2 10.3 12.5 68.1 41.5 37.7 7.7 11.5 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.8 17.5 18.6 116.0 65.7 59.1 6.4 9.1 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.9 15.6 88.0 55.6 50.3 7.1 11.2 16.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.8 17.2 16.8 77.0 44.9 42.6 8.0 19.1 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 12.6 17.3 15.8 113.7 65.6 56.4 2.2 10.5 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------