***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 7.7 9.5 20.3 201.6 88.2 80.5 3.1 4.3 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 8.1 11.8 18.4 168.0 80.9 75.4 2.0 3.8 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 11.7 17.3 18.3 173.9 82.2 76.2 2.2 5.5 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 12.0 20.1 23.1 194.0 85.3 75.8 3.9 7.3 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 9.8 11.2 15.3 151.2 74.8 67.7 4.4 5.6 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 10.2 11.4 13.6 114.5 67.0 57.9 5.8 9.4 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 9.2 12.2 17.5 153.8 78.7 73.4 1.7 3.8 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 14.2 17.4 13.9 100.1 60.8 53.6 6.9 12.1 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 8.8 11.0 16.3 158.4 77.5 69.3 1.8 4.8 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.6 10.9 16.4 123.2 68.2 60.6 3.2 7.5 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 4.4 7.1 13.4 124.6 70.1 62.2 2.0 3.6 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 7.8 8.2 11.1 103.6 61.9 55.2 2.8 6.2 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 8.9 10.0 10.0 98.5 60.4 54.5 4.8 7.6 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 12.9 14.0 20.9 147.2 76.2 71.1 5.9 8.4 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 12.5 20.7 19.2 193.9 83.2 76.0 2.5 4.9 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.1 12.0 13.3 130.8 70.9 62.3 2.1 5.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 7.2 9.6 18.1 154.3 78.1 71.9 1.7 3.0 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.1 12.1 17.6 121.3 66.5 60.8 2.9 8.1 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 7.3 8.8 19.1 177.1 82.5 76.7 2.8 3.8 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.7 8.2 12.5 79.4 50.3 46.4 6.0 8.2 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 8.0 12.7 18.3 183.8 82.3 75.5 2.6 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 7.1 10.0 19.3 163.4 80.0 73.0 2.4 4.2 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 10.5 12.0 19.6 177.5 82.4 76.8 2.1 5.8 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 10.8 11.6 18.5 147.8 75.6 69.6 3.2 6.9 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 10.3 14.6 20.0 183.6 83.5 77.0 3.7 6.2 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 6.1 3.9 8.1 76.2 49.7 46.7 2.1 4.0 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 8.1 11.2 20.1 183.4 84.5 77.4 2.9 5.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 9.5 13.9 19.4 175.6 81.3 71.5 1.6 4.1 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 14.2 15.4 15.5 104.6 62.5 55.7 6.2 12.5 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 9.2 11.1 18.3 168.3 82.4 75.6 2.2 4.5 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------