***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 21.4 22.1 20.6 -0.8 39.3 39.4 21.2 22.5 23.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 20.8 21.5 20.3 -1.1 33.7 35.4 21.4 22.6 24.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 23.1 22.0 20.9 -0.7 41.7 41.5 21.3 22.6 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 15.4 14.7 18.1 -0.5 40.3 42.5 14.2 15.0 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 23.2 22.1 19.3 -0.3 44.3 46.3 21.5 22.9 24.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 21.2 21.3 17.7 0.4 59.2 57.8 20.5 20.8 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 20.8 20.7 20.0 -1.2 30.4 33.3 20.7 22.1 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 10.8 10.7 18.0 0.2 53.7 53.8 9.6 10.6 11.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 22.4 21.6 19.9 -0.2 46.2 47.9 21.0 22.1 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 22.0 21.8 18.7 0.1 51.9 52.0 21.1 21.7 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 22.2 21.8 19.5 -0.2 46.2 48.1 21.4 21.8 23.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 21.5 21.3 19.0 0.0 49.6 50.4 20.6 21.3 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 22.4 22.2 18.8 0.0 50.0 50.7 21.5 22.2 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 22.9 22.0 19.3 -0.5 45.7 44.5 21.3 22.5 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 22.9 21.7 19.5 -0.7 36.7 39.5 21.6 22.5 23.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 23.2 22.6 19.0 -0.1 47.8 49.1 21.6 22.9 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 20.2 20.6 19.9 -1.1 32.3 35.2 20.6 21.9 23.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 21.8 21.7 18.0 0.1 52.7 52.8 20.6 21.5 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 20.6 21.1 20.5 -1.0 36.6 37.2 20.8 21.9 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 17.0 17.3 16.0 0.4 59.0 57.7 16.1 16.7 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 22.7 22.0 20.6 -0.3 45.7 46.0 21.3 22.4 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 20.9 21.1 20.0 -0.9 35.1 37.7 21.1 22.5 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 23.2 21.8 20.5 -0.9 39.1 38.6 21.6 22.7 23.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 22.3 21.8 19.5 -0.3 47.8 47.0 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 23.1 21.4 19.2 -0.7 39.3 40.2 21.1 22.6 23.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 22.0 21.8 18.3 0.1 54.0 53.2 20.7 21.8 22.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 21.2 21.7 19.8 -0.8 37.7 38.2 21.1 22.4 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 22.7 21.9 18.9 -0.4 42.3 44.7 21.4 22.3 23.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 17.1 16.9 17.3 0.2 54.1 54.5 15.6 16.8 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 20.9 21.2 20.4 -1.1 34.4 35.9 21.0 22.4 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------