***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 20.6 22.9 21.4 -0.9 45.2 41.5 22.2 23.3 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 21.8 23.8 21.3 -1.1 42.9 41.5 22.5 24.7 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 22.0 23.3 21.7 -0.9 45.2 42.5 22.3 24.3 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.4 19.2 -0.8 43.4 42.2 14.4 17.2 19.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 22.1 23.3 19.8 -0.8 44.9 42.8 22.3 24.0 27.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.4 21.8 17.6 -0.4 46.1 46.3 21.0 22.7 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 21.6 23.5 21.2 -1.1 42.2 40.7 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.7 12.2 18.3 -0.5 46.7 45.4 10.6 12.9 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 21.8 23.4 20.1 -0.7 46.8 43.8 21.6 23.7 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 21.5 23.1 18.9 -0.5 48.0 45.2 22.0 23.8 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 21.7 22.9 19.6 -0.8 43.9 43.1 22.0 23.7 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 20.8 21.8 19.3 -0.7 44.9 43.8 21.4 22.7 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 22.0 22.9 18.5 -0.7 43.9 43.7 22.6 24.2 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 21.9 23.9 19.8 -0.7 46.3 43.6 21.9 24.3 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 22.0 23.3 20.2 -0.7 45.0 43.4 22.5 23.5 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.7 23.1 19.1 -0.7 43.6 43.5 22.8 24.6 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 21.3 23.6 21.2 -1.0 43.1 42.2 22.6 23.7 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 20.9 22.8 18.4 -0.5 48.1 45.8 21.4 23.4 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 21.4 22.9 21.4 -1.0 42.9 41.7 22.4 23.9 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 16.2 18.7 16.1 -0.3 49.9 47.6 16.9 18.7 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 21.8 23.5 21.0 -0.6 47.8 43.8 21.9 23.9 26.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 21.9 24.4 21.1 -0.9 42.5 42.7 22.4 24.5 25.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 21.5 23.3 21.4 -1.0 42.9 41.4 22.5 24.1 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 21.2 23.1 19.8 -0.7 46.2 43.9 21.6 23.6 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 21.6 23.2 19.8 -0.8 45.5 42.1 22.1 23.9 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.3 18.6 -0.6 46.0 44.8 21.9 23.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 21.4 23.3 20.6 -0.9 45.2 41.4 22.3 23.7 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 22.1 22.8 19.5 -0.7 44.7 43.8 21.8 23.4 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 15.8 18.3 17.5 -0.4 47.8 46.1 16.4 18.9 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 21.5 23.4 21.3 -1.1 42.9 40.9 22.6 24.0 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------