***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 21.7 23.0 21.0 -0.3 49.3 47.9 22.2 23.1 24.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 24.6 24.0 20.7 -0.6 45.0 45.8 22.6 24.2 25.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 24.6 24.2 21.2 -0.3 50.4 48.1 22.4 24.2 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 14.5 16.6 18.7 -0.3 48.7 48.1 15.1 16.7 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 21.8 23.5 19.3 -0.2 50.7 48.7 22.5 23.5 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 22.5 21.9 17.4 0.1 54.1 51.6 20.7 21.8 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 21.7 23.1 20.5 -0.7 44.2 45.2 21.8 23.4 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.0 11.4 17.9 -0.1 51.3 49.7 10.0 11.4 11.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 21.4 23.1 19.6 -0.1 53.3 49.4 22.1 23.0 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 21.0 22.5 18.5 0.0 52.3 50.0 21.9 22.5 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 21.3 22.9 19.2 -0.2 48.8 48.8 21.7 23.0 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 20.7 21.9 18.9 -0.2 50.0 48.9 21.0 21.9 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 21.7 23.2 18.2 -0.1 52.0 50.2 21.7 22.9 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.4 23.9 19.2 -0.2 51.2 48.4 22.1 23.9 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 21.4 23.5 19.6 -0.4 49.1 47.5 22.1 23.6 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.1 23.7 18.8 -0.2 50.7 49.6 22.5 23.6 24.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 23.5 22.7 20.5 -0.5 45.5 46.1 21.2 22.9 24.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 20.7 22.4 18.0 0.1 53.2 50.4 21.6 22.3 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 24.2 23.4 20.9 -0.5 46.4 46.3 21.6 23.7 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 17.8 17.5 15.6 0.1 54.7 51.0 16.5 17.1 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.8 20.6 -0.1 53.6 49.4 22.3 23.3 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 24.3 23.6 20.5 -0.4 46.6 47.1 21.8 23.9 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 24.6 24.0 20.9 -0.4 47.7 46.7 22.0 24.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.2 19.4 -0.1 51.8 49.2 22.4 23.1 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 21.8 23.6 19.3 -0.3 50.0 48.3 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 21.0 21.7 18.3 -0.2 52.2 50.0 21.0 21.5 23.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 21.8 23.5 20.1 -0.3 48.9 47.9 22.0 23.6 24.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 21.6 23.7 19.1 -0.3 50.5 48.6 22.1 23.7 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 15.9 17.5 17.1 0.1 53.6 50.6 16.5 17.4 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 22.2 24.0 20.8 -0.6 45.4 45.9 22.1 24.1 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------