***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 22.5 22.4 20.9 -0.1 52.7 50.0 20.4 21.9 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 22.8 22.6 20.7 -0.4 50.5 48.0 20.1 22.4 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 23.0 22.9 21.3 0.0 52.6 51.5 20.4 22.7 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 15.0 15.0 18.2 0.1 54.6 52.7 13.6 14.6 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 22.4 22.8 19.7 0.5 56.6 55.2 21.1 21.9 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 21.1 21.9 18.0 1.1 64.2 61.0 19.3 20.6 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 23.0 22.6 20.5 -0.5 48.2 46.3 19.9 22.8 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 10.4 11.2 18.5 1.1 61.9 59.9 8.0 10.0 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 21.7 21.8 20.4 0.6 57.2 56.4 20.5 21.3 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 21.8 22.5 19.2 0.9 60.2 58.9 20.3 21.3 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 22.4 22.5 20.0 0.5 56.9 55.8 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 21.1 21.3 19.3 0.7 57.6 57.4 19.8 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 22.2 22.2 19.3 0.6 57.4 56.3 20.7 21.7 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 22.6 22.6 20.0 0.5 53.6 54.9 19.9 22.3 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 22.3 22.1 19.9 -0.2 50.8 49.6 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 22.6 22.8 19.4 0.5 57.5 55.7 21.1 22.2 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 21.9 21.5 20.4 -0.3 49.7 48.1 19.6 21.5 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 21.4 21.8 18.6 1.1 60.9 59.9 19.6 21.0 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 22.6 22.5 20.9 -0.3 51.3 49.1 19.6 22.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 17.5 17.6 16.7 1.5 67.3 63.2 14.2 16.2 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 22.5 22.5 21.1 0.4 56.3 54.8 20.4 22.1 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 22.9 22.6 20.5 -0.1 52.1 50.4 19.8 22.6 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 22.7 22.4 21.0 -0.1 50.5 50.3 20.5 22.4 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 22.0 22.0 20.1 0.6 55.8 56.1 20.0 21.6 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 22.5 22.1 19.6 -0.1 50.9 50.3 20.8 22.1 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.8 18.6 0.8 59.5 58.7 20.1 20.9 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 22.6 22.3 20.2 -0.2 49.9 49.0 20.5 22.3 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 22.4 22.4 19.1 0.2 55.6 53.6 21.5 22.1 23.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 16.3 17.4 17.9 1.3 63.3 61.0 14.0 15.7 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 22.9 22.6 20.8 -0.4 50.1 48.1 20.1 22.6 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------