***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 20.1 19.8 19.0 -1.7 30.9 33.2 20.0 21.3 22.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 18.6 18.1 18.4 -2.5 22.9 25.0 19.9 21.5 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 21.8 19.8 19.3 -1.7 33.7 34.6 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 14.9 13.1 16.3 -1.0 40.7 40.6 12.3 14.6 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 21.1 20.7 18.5 -0.6 48.3 46.0 20.4 20.8 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 19.9 20.5 17.8 1.1 64.1 61.9 18.2 19.6 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 18.1 17.7 18.0 -2.6 21.3 22.6 19.2 21.0 21.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 8.9 9.3 17.4 0.3 57.4 55.1 7.2 8.6 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 21.2 20.8 19.4 -0.6 48.0 46.0 19.6 20.9 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 20.6 20.5 18.1 0.0 52.4 51.1 19.4 20.3 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 20.7 20.5 19.4 -0.2 50.6 49.5 19.7 20.5 22.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 19.8 20.0 18.3 0.1 56.0 53.8 18.6 19.5 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 21.0 21.0 19.3 0.2 55.0 54.2 19.9 20.7 22.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 19.6 19.8 18.3 -1.5 33.0 35.4 19.9 21.1 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 21.8 19.8 18.5 -1.5 36.0 35.4 19.4 21.4 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 21.8 21.6 18.9 0.0 51.2 51.5 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 17.8 17.2 17.6 -2.7 20.6 22.5 19.3 21.1 22.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 20.4 20.2 17.2 -0.2 51.8 50.1 18.8 20.1 21.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 18.2 18.2 18.6 -2.3 25.0 27.2 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 14.8 15.6 15.6 0.4 57.6 55.9 13.7 14.5 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 21.4 20.3 19.8 -1.0 43.2 41.9 19.9 20.9 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 18.4 17.9 17.9 -2.4 22.4 25.0 20.1 21.3 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 19.0 19.5 18.8 -2.1 27.1 29.5 20.0 21.2 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 20.9 20.1 18.7 -1.0 41.1 41.6 19.6 20.4 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 21.5 20.1 18.0 -1.5 33.9 35.3 20.1 20.9 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 20.1 20.9 17.7 0.5 62.6 58.2 18.9 19.8 21.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 19.0 19.1 18.3 -1.9 28.0 31.3 19.2 20.8 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 21.8 20.7 17.8 -0.8 44.4 43.3 19.5 21.6 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 15.2 15.4 16.7 0.0 53.3 52.0 13.6 14.9 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 18.5 18.2 18.6 -2.3 24.6 27.0 19.6 21.2 22.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------