***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 10.0 9.9 10.9 -0.7 32.4 36.5 9.9 10.7 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 9.6 9.9 10.5 -0.8 32.6 34.2 9.9 10.5 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 11.1 11.5 11.0 -0.6 36.9 38.3 11.4 12.0 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.3 6.5 8.5 -0.3 41.5 41.8 6.2 7.1 7.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.3 8.5 9.0 -0.3 42.1 42.8 8.3 8.8 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.8 7.0 0.1 54.0 53.5 7.3 7.8 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 9.8 9.7 10.4 -0.9 30.6 32.5 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.1 2.5 6.7 -0.1 47.0 47.1 1.9 2.7 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 9.2 9.3 9.0 -0.3 43.8 43.5 9.0 9.8 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.1 9.5 7.5 -0.2 46.0 46.1 9.0 9.8 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 8.7 8.9 8.4 -0.3 42.6 42.6 8.7 9.2 9.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 7.2 7.8 7.6 -0.1 47.8 47.5 7.0 7.8 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.8 7.4 0.0 47.8 49.1 8.4 8.9 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.0 8.8 -0.3 41.2 41.8 9.8 10.3 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 9.9 10.2 9.7 -0.4 34.9 38.7 10.1 10.5 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 9.5 10.2 8.0 -0.1 47.4 47.3 9.4 10.3 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 9.9 10.2 10.2 -0.8 30.8 33.6 10.3 10.7 11.3 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 7.3 7.9 6.9 -0.1 48.3 48.1 7.3 8.0 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 9.7 10.0 10.5 -0.7 34.1 35.5 10.0 10.4 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.9 4.6 5.1 0.0 51.6 50.9 3.8 4.5 4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 9.3 9.3 10.3 -0.4 41.6 41.6 9.1 9.8 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 9.1 9.3 10.2 -0.8 33.6 35.0 9.3 9.8 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 9.5 9.7 10.4 -0.6 35.9 37.1 9.6 10.1 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 9.2 9.6 8.7 -0.3 42.2 42.4 9.2 9.8 10.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 9.5 9.8 9.8 -0.6 34.5 37.7 9.7 10.1 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.0 7.1 0.2 53.9 54.6 7.8 8.9 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 9.9 9.8 10.3 -0.7 32.9 36.7 9.8 10.7 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 8.2 8.2 8.9 -0.3 42.0 43.2 8.0 8.7 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.3 7.1 6.3 -0.1 49.5 48.2 6.3 7.1 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 9.8 9.7 10.7 -0.8 32.1 34.2 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------