***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.6 11.8 -0.8 38.1 39.7 11.6 11.9 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.6 11.5 -0.9 40.6 39.6 11.3 12.1 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.1 11.9 -0.8 39.2 40.0 13.0 13.4 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 6.6 7.3 9.3 -0.7 36.0 39.0 7.3 8.5 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 9.7 10.1 9.4 -0.7 38.1 39.4 9.9 10.7 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 8.3 9.4 7.5 -0.5 38.3 40.5 9.3 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 11.0 11.4 11.5 -0.9 40.6 39.5 10.9 12.3 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 3.0 3.5 7.3 -0.7 37.4 39.7 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.9 10.9 9.7 -0.6 40.7 40.8 10.7 11.6 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 10.4 10.7 8.2 -0.6 39.4 40.8 10.4 11.6 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 10.2 10.7 8.8 -0.7 36.8 38.9 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 8.5 8.8 8.1 -0.7 37.5 39.2 8.6 9.8 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.6 7.6 -0.6 38.1 39.7 10.2 11.0 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.1 9.7 -0.6 39.6 40.8 10.9 12.0 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 11.5 11.9 10.6 -0.6 36.6 39.7 11.5 12.5 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 10.6 11.1 8.3 -0.6 37.9 39.4 11.0 12.1 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.3 11.7 11.4 -0.8 41.1 40.5 11.5 13.0 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.3 7.5 -0.5 41.0 42.1 8.8 9.8 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.7 11.6 -0.9 39.8 39.6 11.5 12.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.0 5.3 5.4 -0.5 39.3 41.5 4.9 6.2 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.0 11.1 -0.6 40.3 41.0 10.6 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.0 11.3 -0.8 41.4 40.8 10.2 11.4 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.3 11.5 -0.8 38.7 39.5 10.8 11.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 10.4 10.6 9.4 -0.5 40.3 41.2 10.4 11.2 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 10.9 11.2 10.4 -0.8 38.2 39.6 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 9.2 9.8 7.2 -0.7 33.8 37.8 9.7 10.6 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.6 11.1 -0.8 38.1 39.8 11.4 12.1 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 9.3 9.9 9.6 -0.6 36.9 39.8 9.6 10.3 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 7.8 6.9 -0.5 39.9 41.8 7.4 8.5 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 11.0 11.7 11.7 -0.9 39.8 39.1 11.5 12.2 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------