***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9.6 10.4 11.6 -0.2 50.6 48.2 10.0 10.4 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.9 11.2 -0.3 47.0 47.7 10.0 11.4 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 11.6 12.7 11.6 -0.2 47.2 48.2 11.5 12.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.6 8.1 9.1 -0.1 52.1 49.3 6.9 8.1 9.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 8.8 9.7 9.3 0.0 52.4 50.7 9.0 9.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.8 7.4 0.2 57.3 54.3 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.5 11.2 -0.4 46.2 47.2 9.8 10.6 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 2.5 3.8 7.3 0.2 54.9 54.1 2.8 3.4 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 9.3 10.1 9.5 0.0 52.5 51.5 9.5 10.0 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.5 10.6 8.0 0.1 54.6 53.2 9.6 10.1 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 9.1 10.0 8.7 0.0 54.1 51.4 9.3 9.8 10.5 29 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.4 8.3 8.0 0.1 54.6 53.2 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 8.8 9.9 7.5 0.2 56.9 54.0 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.3 9.3 -0.1 47.3 50.0 9.4 10.5 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 10.1 10.7 10.2 -0.2 50.0 48.1 10.3 10.7 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 9.8 10.9 8.2 0.1 55.9 52.3 9.9 10.5 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.0 11.0 -0.3 46.1 48.3 10.0 11.2 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.7 8.6 7.3 0.2 54.3 54.3 8.0 8.5 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.6 11.3 -0.3 46.9 47.7 9.9 10.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.2 5.1 5.2 0.2 54.4 55.6 4.3 5.0 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 9.3 10.3 10.8 0.0 51.9 50.3 9.6 10.2 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.4 10.8 -0.3 46.4 47.8 9.4 10.5 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.4 11.1 -0.3 46.4 47.5 9.8 10.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.2 9.1 0.0 49.3 51.3 9.1 10.2 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 9.8 10.7 10.2 -0.1 52.4 49.0 10.0 10.6 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.0 7.3 0.2 55.7 54.9 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 10.0 11.2 10.9 -0.2 51.4 48.8 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 8.5 9.4 9.4 0.0 53.5 50.1 8.4 9.3 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 8.2 8.2 6.7 0.2 54.3 54.8 6.6 7.9 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 10.2 10.6 11.4 -0.3 46.9 47.0 9.9 10.9 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------