***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 8.6 9.4 11.2 -0.1 46.8 48.6 8.4 9.4 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 8.5 9.0 10.8 -0.3 43.4 46.6 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 10.2 11.0 11.3 -0.1 48.8 49.5 10.1 11.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.8 6.1 8.7 0.1 51.9 51.5 5.7 6.1 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.8 8.6 9.4 0.2 53.6 52.8 6.5 8.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.7 8.0 7.5 0.7 61.5 59.8 6.1 7.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.4 10.7 -0.4 43.0 45.8 8.8 9.7 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 0.9 2.5 7.1 0.3 53.7 54.8 0.9 1.9 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.7 9.2 9.5 0.2 54.8 52.5 8.0 9.0 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 8.0 9.1 7.9 0.3 54.7 53.9 7.7 8.9 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.7 8.9 8.9 0.2 52.2 52.9 7.4 8.7 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.5 8.1 0.4 55.3 55.5 6.4 7.0 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.4 8.1 0.5 59.4 56.8 7.2 8.2 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.4 9.1 0.1 53.0 51.8 9.0 9.2 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.9 10.0 -0.1 49.6 49.3 8.7 9.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.7 8.6 0.4 56.9 56.0 8.3 9.1 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 9.3 9.8 10.4 -0.3 42.4 46.1 9.1 10.1 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.0 7.1 7.3 0.4 55.8 54.5 5.9 6.6 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.2 10.9 -0.2 45.2 47.2 8.8 9.3 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.2 5.6 0.5 54.4 55.3 3.3 3.8 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 7.7 9.5 10.7 0.1 52.1 51.9 7.4 9.1 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.8 10.5 -0.2 45.8 47.1 8.4 9.0 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.1 10.7 -0.1 46.5 47.8 8.6 9.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 8.4 9.2 9.1 0.1 54.0 51.7 8.6 9.0 9.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 8.1 9.0 10.2 -0.1 49.6 49.5 8.1 9.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.6 7.7 0.7 61.9 59.2 6.9 7.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.2 9.6 10.7 -0.1 47.3 49.0 7.9 9.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.7 7.9 9.2 0.1 53.2 52.6 7.1 7.7 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.4 6.6 0.3 54.9 54.1 5.3 6.4 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 8.5 9.4 11.0 -0.3 44.3 46.7 8.4 9.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------