***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 8.1 8.4 9.0 -1.5 27.6 29.1 8.7 9.1 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 7.2 6.9 8.3 -1.8 22.1 23.7 8.2 9.4 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 9.1 9.5 9.1 -1.3 27.7 30.5 9.7 10.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 5.6 5.1 6.8 -0.6 44.5 44.2 4.4 5.4 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 7.9 7.0 7.7 -0.7 40.2 40.8 6.6 7.6 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 5.9 6.0 5.5 0.1 55.1 55.8 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 6.9 6.8 8.2 -1.9 20.2 22.1 7.7 9.1 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 1.5 1.1 5.1 -0.4 44.8 45.2 0.1 1.2 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.5 7.2 7.5 -0.7 35.9 38.6 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.3 7.5 5.9 -0.5 39.1 41.4 7.2 7.8 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.8 6.7 7.0 -0.7 39.4 39.7 6.2 7.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 6.2 5.9 6.3 -0.2 49.8 49.0 4.8 6.0 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 7.2 6.7 6.3 -0.2 46.0 47.2 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.2 7.5 7.1 -0.9 30.1 32.2 7.5 8.4 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.3 8.0 -0.8 37.4 38.1 8.2 8.6 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 8.8 8.4 7.0 -0.3 46.8 47.2 7.9 8.5 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 7.4 7.3 7.8 -2.0 19.5 21.5 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.3 5.6 -0.4 41.0 43.0 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 7.0 7.3 8.5 -1.6 23.4 25.2 7.9 8.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 2.9 2.7 4.2 0.0 51.8 51.0 1.9 2.6 3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.6 7.1 8.6 -1.0 32.7 35.2 7.2 8.2 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 7.0 6.6 8.2 -1.7 19.5 22.6 7.7 8.3 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 6.5 6.8 8.5 -1.4 25.2 27.2 7.9 8.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.9 7.2 -0.9 30.4 33.8 7.2 7.9 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.4 8.3 -1.3 30.9 32.2 7.4 8.8 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 7.0 7.9 6.4 0.5 62.8 61.7 5.9 6.8 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.3 7.0 8.6 -1.5 27.1 29.3 7.1 9.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 6.9 6.3 7.3 -0.5 43.8 44.0 5.7 6.6 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 6.0 4.7 4.8 -0.4 42.4 43.2 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 6.9 6.8 8.7 -1.7 22.3 24.8 8.2 9.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------