***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 33.5 58.1 64.7 107.1 65.9 56.1 33.0 48.0 58.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 40.1 37.9 57.1 100.2 54.3 52.6 25.3 34.3 57.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 56.0 59.6 60.9 102.3 57.6 53.4 32.9 51.3 67.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 64.5 65.5 67.0 101.1 56.7 53.6 45.1 58.7 72.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 49.7 53.6 66.7 105.4 60.5 56.1 35.0 43.3 67.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 59.5 56.8 71.6 98.3 57.1 51.6 43.3 55.0 66.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 41.6 36.7 58.8 100.3 54.8 52.6 24.0 34.6 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 92.0 89.1 71.8 98.4 54.2 51.4 78.4 87.1 100.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 52.1 54.8 69.4 105.4 60.2 55.8 36.8 48.6 55.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 58.8 54.1 77.5 102.0 56.9 53.5 40.4 51.3 56.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 47.0 46.1 63.9 101.1 55.5 53.1 34.4 43.9 57.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 50.2 52.3 62.2 97.5 54.0 50.4 39.2 46.3 58.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 46.0 42.1 66.8 96.0 53.0 49.1 35.7 41.0 51.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 67.8 63.8 79.6 103.3 55.6 52.6 39.1 62.7 70.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 48.3 46.3 58.9 96.3 53.4 50.8 31.7 45.6 54.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 51.8 52.1 63.3 98.4 53.7 50.9 37.9 48.3 59.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 44.8 39.8 57.2 100.6 54.1 51.8 22.5 37.3 61.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 72.1 69.8 83.5 102.9 55.5 53.3 47.3 67.0 83.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 55.4 58.4 58.0 100.7 54.1 52.6 36.3 47.8 68.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 60.6 64.2 85.9 107.5 58.9 56.4 44.0 56.5 67.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 51.6 51.5 65.2 105.9 60.2 56.0 36.3 48.6 56.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 43.6 47.5 59.5 102.2 59.3 53.4 24.7 34.9 53.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 52.0 47.3 60.6 101.1 53.4 52.0 28.3 45.3 67.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 58.3 56.6 72.7 100.5 55.1 51.9 41.1 53.6 70.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 56.5 65.2 72.5 105.3 64.9 56.6 33.7 51.2 66.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 48.2 44.5 59.3 89.8 47.0 47.0 35.4 45.8 55.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 60.6 68.2 70.6 105.1 66.3 56.2 35.4 56.2 68.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 48.0 48.5 62.7 98.6 54.6 51.5 31.3 44.3 56.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 84.4 85.6 84.5 105.4 56.7 54.5 62.7 81.1 87.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 41.8 40.8 59.1 101.4 55.1 54.0 26.9 35.3 59.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------